Newt’s “late” surge may have been, in fact, too early. A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows Ron Paul leading in Iowa, with Newt Gingrich falling to third place. The poll shows Paul at 23 percent, Mitt Romney at 20 percent, and Gingrich at 14 percent. Gingrich has fallen 13 percent in two weeks, and his net favorability rating has collapsed from +31 to -1. Meanwhile, Paul’s success has a lot to do with how hard he has been working in Iowa: 22 percent of Iowa voters say he’s run the best campaign, compared with just 8 percent for Gingrich and 5 percent for Romney. He also leads Romney 26–5 percent with voters who say it’s “very important” that a candidate spend a lot of time in the state and 29–19 percent with voters who have met a candidate in person.
