The U.S. Air Force has just released its latest official strategy for controlling the sky for the next 15 years. And for the first time in generations, the âair-superiorityâ plan doesnât necessarily include a new fighter jet.
Thatâs rightâthe worldâs leading air force, the operator of the worldâs biggest and most sophisticated fleet of fighter planes, isnât currently planning on developing a major new fighter. The Air Force may be getting the F-35âits current fighter. But it probably wonât get an F-36 any time soon.
And thatâs a real shame for fans of thunderous air shows and Hollywood blockbusters. The Air Force has a plan to replace its traditional fighters, but it involves technology thatâs not as impressive at a public event or on the silver screen.
Instead of deploying squadrons of supersonic, manned jets to directly battle enemy planes with missiles and gunsâthe traditional approach to air superiorityâin 2030 the Air Force will wage aerial warfare with a âfamily of capabilities,â according to the âAir Superiority 2030 Flight Planâ strategy document (PDF).
These capabilities could include hackers who can target an enemyâs aerial command-and-control systems, electronic jammers to blind rival planesâ sensors, and new B-21 stealth bombers that can, in theory, destroy enemy aircraft on the ground before they can even take off.
The closest thing to a new fighter jet that the strategy document mentions is a so-called penetrating counterair system, or PCA, that can fight or sneak its way into enemy air space to find, and ultimately help destroy, other planes.
Thatâs what todayâs F-15 and F-22 fighters doâand what the F-35 might do, once it finally overcomes vexing technical problems and becomes combat-ready. But with Russian- and Chinese-made air defenses steadily growing more sophisticated, the U.S. Air Force isnât assuming that existing or future fighters will be able to keep up for very long. âAdvanced air and surface threats are spreading to other countries around the world,â the strategy notes.
In other words, more and more countries are getting fighters, radars, and surface-to-air missiles that can reliably shoot down American planes.
In the direst scenario, Air Force fighters simply wonât survive over enemy territory long enough to make any difference during a major war. In that case, the penetrating counterair system, or PCA, might not be a fighter jet as we currently understand it.
Instead, it could be a radar-evading drone whose main job is to slip undetected into enemy air space and use sophisticated sensors to detect enemy planesâand then pass that targeting data via satellite back to other U.S. forces. âA node in the network,â is how the strategy document describes the penetrating systemâs main job.
The Air Force could start work on the penetrating counterair system in 2017, according to the new air-superiority plan. The document proposes that this possible stealth drone could team up with an âarsenal planeââan old bomber or transport plane modified to carry potentially hundreds of long-range missiles.
Flying safely inside friendly territory, the arsenal plane could lob huge numbers of munitions over a long distance to overwhelm enemy defense and wipe out aircraft on the ground and in the airâall without a single American pilot risking his or her life on the aerial front line.
Not coincidentally, the Pentagon announced early this year that its Rapid Capabilities Office, a secretive research-and-development organization based in Virginia, had begun work on an arsenal plane, possibly a modified B-52 bomber.
The drone-arsenal-plane combo could prove devastatingly effective. But itâs also a kind of bandaid on a self-inflicted technological wound. The Air Force needs upgraded older planes because its new planes are late and over-budgetâand, as a result, dangerously close to being obsolete despite still having that new-car smell.
Besides being progressively outclassed by fast-improving enemy defenses, Americaâs fighters have proved increasingly expensive and difficult to develop, buy, and maintain. A single new F-35, currently the Air Forceâs only in-production fighters, costs no less than $150 millionâtens of millions of dollars more than the older planes itâs replacing.
In development since the late 1990s, the F-35âwhich bakes pricey new sensors and computers into a complex airframeâcould finally become operational with the Air Force in late 2016. Budget woes and problems with the engine and software have delayed the planeâs introduction by no less than 10 years.
In order to have any hope of hanging on to the very idea of a fighter jet in 2030 and beyond, the Air Force must rethink its approach to developing planes. The service âmust reject thinking focused on ânext-generationâ platforms,â the air-superiority plan advises. âSuch focus often creates a desire to push technology limits within the confines of a formal program⌠Pushing those limits in a formal program increases risk to unacceptable levels, resulting in cost growth and schedule slips.â
Instead, the strategy documents recommend that the Air Force separate airplane-development from the invention of new electronics. The military could develop new weapons, sensors, and communications technologies like commercial firms devise consumer productsâquickly and incrementally updating a piece of equipment in order to minimize delays and keep down costs.
The Air Force could then add this rapidly-improving new gear to a basic airframe whose own development could proceed at a much slower pace. Instead of buying more than 1,700 identical F-35s over a period of 30 yearsâthatâs the Air Forceâs current planâthe flying branch could acquire a slightly-improved new plane model every year. Same fuselage, wings, and engines. New electronics and weapons.
Just like Apple releases a new, slightly better version of the iPhone every year or so, the Air Force could get a small batch of new jets on an annual basis, each batch possessing that yearâs best tech.
An incremental approach to buying jets could help prolong the fighterâs usefulness in the Air Forceâs arsenal. But even that wonât solve the fundamental problem Americaâs air arm faces at it looks ahead 15 years. Rivals have caught up to U.S. air power, and could soon make it impossible for American fighter jetsâand their pilotsâto survive over enemy terrain.
For that reason, the Air Force is far more likely to simply replace fighters with drones. True, air shows and movies could get a lot more boring. But the fighterâs demise could keep U.S. pilots from throwing away their lives on aerial suicide missions.