From the beginning, Kamala Harris has called herself the underdog in her race against Donald Trump. Democrats have been on a roller coaster, from their collective dread that helped force Joe Biden out of the race to the high of the Harris honeymoon and back down again to pre-election jitters as Trump has regained momentum. Still, Democrats see plenty of signs Harris could come out on top. Here are seven.
Skewed Polling
In almost every battleground state, Harris and Trump are running neck-and-neck. But that result may be influenced by partisan polling firms, mostly on the Republican side. Some major polling averages include data from right-leaning pollsters such as Trafalgar Group—which incorrectly predicted the “red wave” in the 2022 midterm elections—and even surveys sponsored by Trump himself. And some Democratic strategists have taken note.
Money Talks
The Harris operation has shattered fundraising records, bringing in more than $1 billion in a single quarter. Money doesn’t always buy votes, but it does buy ads, putting the Harris directly in front of voters on their TVs, laptops and handheld devices. In addition to the eight-figure checks top donors have cut to super PACs, hordes of regular Americans—nurses and school teachers—have forked over small donations. In fact, the campaign said 95 percent of its August contributions were for less than $200.
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As veteran Democratic campaign guru James Carville wrote in a New York Times op-ed Wednesday predicting a Harris victory: “She is strapped with the necessary cash to forcefully remind suburban women and voters in the middle that Mr. Trump is, in fact, the extremist candidate.”
Gains on the Economy
And to paraphrase Carville: It’s still the economy, stupid. Americans had generally trusted Trump more than Democrats to handle the issue—until this fall. Several polls now show Harris has regained voters’ trust on their No. 1 issue as she has touted policies promising to make home-buying, grocery-shopping and entrepreneurship more affordable.
Abortion Rights
While the economy and immigration are key to voters as a whole, four in 10 women under 30 say abortion is their most important issue. That number has skyrocketed since Biden ended his presidential bid. Another poll found similar results among battleground voters, especially women, in August. Surveys show voters trust Harris far more than Trump on the issue after he appointed three Supreme Court Justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade. And Harris has the money to make hard-hitting attack ads against “Trump abortion bans,” such as the emotional one released Wednesday.
Trump’s Weakening Base
Republicans have touted their success in cutting into Harris’ margins with traditionally Democratic groups, including Black and Latino men. But Trump may be losing ground with his own base. As CNN election analyst Harry Enten noted on Monday, Trump’s support from white voters who didn’t go to college has dwindled. That could be especially relevant in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where these voters make up the majority of the electorate.
Early Voting in Michigan
Sure, Democrats tend to vote early more often than Republicans, and Republicans could show up in record numbers on Nov. 5. But still, there are good signs for Harris—in Michigan, in particular. In the Democratic strongholds of Detroit-area counties Wayne and Oakland, about 700,000 voters have requested absentee ballots—roughly half of the total number who voted in those counties in 2020. More than half of those voters have already returned their ballots, according to the state’s voting dashboard. Plus, TargetSmart data suggests the share of Black early voters has increased since 2020, Forbes reported—and Harris’ support among Black voters far outpaces Trump’s.
Likability
The past two elections show that plenty of voters who don’t approve of Trump’s character will support him anyway. But favorability can make a difference in a close race—and Harris‘ rating is much higher than Trump’s. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Harris has a net favorability rating of -0.6 percent, while Trump’s is at -8.8 percent. Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, is the only candidate on either ticket with a positive favorability rating.
Hear more from James Carville on this week’s episode of The Daily Beast Podcast, which is out now. Download the podcast to listen for his conversation with Joanna Coles and Samantha Bee on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, or your favorite podcast app. And click here for email updates as each new episode drops.
