Less than two weeks before Election Day, Donald Trump continues to project confidence that he’ll beat Kamala Harris. Though polling averages have the two candidates tied in the key battlegrounds, there are signals that Republicans are seizing on as evidence that he could pull off a return to the White House despite many believing that he was in the wilderness for much of the last four years. Here are seven.
Polling Errors
Polling averages show Trump and Harris virtually tied in every battleground state—but that may be good news for the three-time Republican presidential candidate. In 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated Trump’s support, a fact celebrity statistician Nate Silver pointed out in a Wednesday New York Times op-ed. He says while the race is 50-50, his “gut” tells him Trump will win. The reason for the polling errors in the past two elections, Silver argues, didn’t have much to do with voters being embarrassed to admit they like Trump. Instead, the problem was “nonresponse bias,” meaning pollsters had trouble reaching the kind of people who tend to vote for Trump.
Betting on Trump
In online betting markets, Trump has pulled ahead significantly. The New Zealand-based PredictIt shows bettors have to pay 10 cents more to wager on Trump than they do on Harris, indicating better odds for the Republican. MAGA boosters, including Elon Musk, have been touting the online betting parlor Polymarket—funded by GOP mega donor Peter Thiel— as being more accurate than polls. But as it turns out, a single individual can wager massive amounts of market-altering bets to tilt the odds.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Bro Vote
Though young voters tend to favor Harris, men under 30 have made a hard right turn, which could help Trump counteract his opponent’s strength with women. His support among young men has helped him make inroads with staunchly Democratic demographics, like Black and Latino voters. Trump and running mate JD Vance are rushing to be heard on podcasts that cater to the manosphere, including the biggest of them all: Joe Rogan’s. Billionaire Musk, the former president’s bankrolling top surrogate, is popular with young guys and his super PAC is going all out to court them.
New Republicans
In key battlegrounds that track voter registration by party, there’s good news for Trump. In Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina, the Democrats’ lead in voter registration is diminishing, while Republicans are registering more voters in Arizona. The trend briefly reversed after Harris entered the race, but it has since reverted. In October, Republicans registered more voters in North Carolina than Democrats did each week of the month. Voters don’t always hew to party lines, but the choice to register Republican is one signal of enthusiasm for the party’s nominee.
Higher Early GOP Turnout
Trump’s suspicions about early voting and vote by mail may have cost him the 2020 election. This year, he has changed his tune. Vance has advocated for early voting at his rallies and Republicans have demonstrated high early turnout. In Nevada, the GOP has a surprising lead in early voting, a sign that could signal “serious danger” for Harris, a veteran Silver State elections expert said. Both parties are hoping to lock in votes before Election Day, when weather and scheduling issues make turnout unpredictable.
The Importance of the Border
After the economy, immigration remains one of voters’ top issues. Trump, who made his political career insulting Mexicans and fearmongering about immigrants stealing Americans’ jobs, still holds a wide lead over Harris in terms of voter trust on this issue. Trump clearly sees it as a key area of strength, filling nearly every speech he gives with dark diatribes against migrants and painting them with broad strokes as rapists and killers, while slamming Harris as a failed “border czar.”
Inflation Nation
Despite positive indicators, like high GDP and low unemployment, voters still think Joe Biden’s economy is terrible. Since the pandemic, high inflation has been top-of-mind. Americans aren’t thinking about macro trends; they’re having sticker shock when paying for necessities, like groceries and housing, and they want something to change. Recognizing the vulnerability, Harris has closed the gap in polling on the issue. But undecided voters’ anxiety about their wallets could make them reject the current administration.
