The Democrats took the House of Representatives on Tuesday night, but was it a “wave”?
Flipping dozens of House seats across the nation is nothing to sneeze at. In recent history, this would be called a wave. Still, to many observers, it felt anticlimactic; they felt conflicted that Republicans were simultaneously adding to their majority in the Senate. Calling this a wave, in that context, required some cognitive dissonance.
The dichotomy between the House and the Senate cannot be overstated. Granted, the Senate map always favored Republicans. Still, they exceeded expectations. Likewise, history suggested that Democrats might have a good shot at taking back the House, but they still had to execute. They did.
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Ultimately, this situation makes it hard to conclude that one side won a definitive victory. As conservative Jonah Goldberg joked, “All of the oceanic metaphors were wrong. No red tide. No blue wave. Just the cold soul-sucking undertow pulling everyone in different directions.”
One chamber, meant to be an anti-majoritarian balance to population centers like New York and Los Angeles, was clearly Trump country. Yet, in the people’s chamber, a booming economy and gerrymandered districts couldn’t prevent a Democratic takeover.
It’s almost as if there were two elections in two different Americas: one the home of working-class Trump voters, and the other, the home of college-educated suburbanites. “The path to the Senate majority and the path to the House majority look like they were in fact running through different universes,” observed conservative Jim Antle. One GOP official probably got it right back in September, when, talking to National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar, he compared this dichotomy “to a different meteorological phenomenon: tornadoes, which can wipe out one neighborhood but leave a nearby one untouched."
What do we call this? And why does it matter if we call it a wave?
In some ways, it shouldn’t. But the truth is that narratives matter. In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential election defeat, there was a consensus that Republicans had to find a way to win Hispanic voters. Ultimately, Republicans abandoned this project, but only after an aborted attempt to pass bipartisan immigration reform.
The point is that the stories we tell ourselves about elections—partly based on the words we choose to employ—can sometimes have consequences. If Democrats believe they won a “wave,” does Nancy Pelosi have a better chance of becoming Speaker? If Donald Trump believes what he tweeted about this being a “tremendous success tonight,” might it impact the way he proceeds?
The fact that things are muddy means Trumpism won't be checked. He will carry on with the belief that his demagoguery won the senate for him. The party will get more Trumpy (see Ron DeSantis). He will demand more allegiance from congressional Republicans, and he will get it―in part because he's so powerful, but also because the Republicans most likely to stand up to him were swept out by the anti-Trump backlash (see Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock—the first Republican to go down Tuesday night).
He will also be able to reshape the judiciary in his mindset because the senate margins are going to be larger. And his cabinet will be whatever he wants it to be for the same reason. That INCLUDES whoever he wants to replace Sessions as Attorney General, which, in turn, affects the Mueller probe.
Remember, I said that narratives matter and that this is how Trump will interpret the results. Democrats will, no doubt, have their own counter narrative. And they will employ their newfound subpoena power. In doing so, however, they will risk prioritizing investigating over legislating. This is a mistake—but one difficult to avoid.
Trump’s narrative is winning. It’s tiger blood. He could spin an unmitigated disaster into a victory. What do you think he’s going to wrangle from a split decision?
Ultimately, our country’s political parties are staring through a glass darkly: they both have a mandate from the people, they both won a race, and they both remain in danger of being utterly vanquished.
This dim reflection of sameness resolves nothing. It just sets the stage for a coming clash—a sequel, if you will.
Tuesday’s midterm election results don’t position Trump to be chastened. Quite the contrary: a 2020 presidential cycle that could make 2018 look like a walk in the park, by comparison.
So, yes, there will be congressional oversight, but whooooo boy. Trump ain't being tamed. If you came into the midterms looking for closure, you came to the wrong place.
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