Michigan voters were already facing a number of consequential choices this midterm cycle: a gubernatorial election, competitive congressional contests, and control of their Republican-led state legislatures.
But when abortion-rights advocates hit enough signatures last month to put a referendum on legalizing abortion on the November ballot, the stakes for Michigan’s 2022 election spiked.
“It has changed everything,” said Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D), who has become a rising star on the left after a speech she gave defending herself from a Republican colleague’s attack went viral.
ADVERTISEMENT
At the core of the ballot referendum is a 1931 law that’s been batted around the state’s judiciary since the downfall of Roe v. Wade, but has the potential to ban abortions in Michigan with few exclusions if it’s ultimately ruled into law. If abortion-rights organizers can finesse enough “yes” votes on their ballot measure, however, the law will become obsolete.
With just weeks left until voting begins, organizers on both sides of the issue are all-in, while Michigan candidates brace themselves for the electoral volatility the referendum could create in what was already a tense midterms cycle.
“The fact that we had the ballot petition circulating even before the Dobbs decision—people were aware of it. But I just remember going to rallies on the day Dobbs fell and telling people, ‘You know, look of all of the states around the country, there is one state right now where you can take direct action, and it's Michigan,’” McMorrow said.
Leading the effort on the “vote yes,” or pro-abortion-rights side is the Reproductive Freedom for All campaign in Michigan, which is comprised of groups including Planned Parenthood Michigan, Michigan Voices and the ACLU of Michigan. Spokesperson Darci McConnell told The Daily Beast by knocking doors, phone banking and launching offices throughout the state.
“Starting with our base… and of course we want to build on that support,” McConnell said, adding that the group is also mounting digital advertising, which is set to include television and radio advertising.
The pro-abortion-rights groups already have a list of supporters to work with. It takes 425,000 valid petition signatures to get a referendum on the ballot, and McConnell says those signees’ information has provided a database of voters who are receptive to their side of the issue.
Michigan political whizzes like Oakland University professor David Dulio say polling supports the idea that a majority of Michiganders support access to abortion.
But, Dulio cautioned, he expects some “moderateness” on the issue, with looming concerns over more rare elements of abortion like late-term procedures still percolating throughout the state.
“A lot of folks in Michigan maybe don’t want it to go as far as it could,” he said.
That alleged moderateness is what the “vote no” side of the issue hopes to latch on to.
Christen Pollo with the Citizens to Support Michigan Women and Children told The Daily Beast Monday she believes the winning argument for the anti-abortion-rights side of the referendum is that the amendment is too broad, arguing the proposed language would enable abortion without reasonable limits in the state.
“There’s a lot of conversations happening right now about abortion, very important conversations,” Pollo said. But she said this measure is too “extreme” for what she believes most Michigan voters would actually be looking for.
Much like the “vote yes” side, Pollo says the Citizens to Support Michigan Women and Children has launched a “full campaign” to connect with voters, including in-person and through advertising.
An ad by the Citizens to Support Michigan Women and Children included quips that the proposal “opens a whole can of worms” and goes “too far.” In another, organizers simply call the proposal “too confusing,” too extreme.”
Looming over the organizing efforts is the outcome of a ballot referendum in Kansas last month, wherein pro-abortion-access organizers managed to successfully protect abortion access in a state that often elects anti-abortion politicians. The win for abortion rights prompted a wave of hype among Democrats at the national level, who say it was a sign that voters of all political spades are upset about the overturning of Roe v. Wade this summer.
Though Michigan isn’t the only state with a ballot amendment regarding abortion this cycle, the Michigan referendum is one of the most broad-sweeping proposals on abortion access coming to voters this fall.
But even as pro-abortion groups and Democrats have pointed to the success in Kansas as a beacon of hope, anti-abortion organizers like Pollo insist “it’s a different playing field,” adding that organizers won’t be deterred.
With abortion now pushed to the front of the political landscape in Michigan, lawmakers are aso forecasting that it will become a leading issue in Michigan campaigns this cycle, from the top of the ticket down.
Senate Minority Leader Jim Ananich, a Flint Democrat, conceded the Dobbs decision and now the ballot referendum have Republicans on the defensive.
“They're definitely having trouble talking about abortion,” Ananich said of Woverine State Republicans. “They don't know how to discuss it. They don’t. They didn't expect the Dobbs decision to happen… they can't change years of public statements and votes they've taken.”
Being able to canvass and make phone calls not just for local candidates, but also for the amendment, is leading to a morale boost, the minority leader added.
“We’re seeing a huge increase in enthusiasm,” Ananich told The Daily Beast. “People, you know, sometimes they get frustrated, they get angry, they don't know what to do. And this is a way to take all that energy and turn it into effort. And I think we think we gotta capitalize because every one of our candidates, especially in targeted seats, is pro-choice and has been talking about this issue no matter what.”
Still, both McMorrow and Anancich said they’re not taking anything for granted, even with a new state Senate map where an internal analysis showed Gov. Gretchen Whitmer would have won 28 of the 33 districts were they in place back in 2018.
There’s also nothing preventing Republican voters from voting in favor of the amendment—while still voting for anti-abortion candidates. But Democrats still can’t help but to hope.
"We’re operating as if they’re gonna run the best operation, all the money in the world,” Ananich said. “And we’re gonna be ready to fight them across the entire field."
