MANCHESTER, New Hampshire—Granite State voters are famous for their procrastination. But this election cycle is particularly notable for just how indecisive the electorate seems to be. At rallies for all the leading candidates over the last few days, the predominant theme among attendees was that they were still deciding—and not in particularly predictable ways.
At a Bernie Sanders’ rally at Franklin Pierce University on Monday morning, one mother said she was choosing between the Vermont senator and former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg (who stand on opposite ends of the Democratic ideological spectrum) on the basis of who would speak to the issue of small business tax burdens. At an event for Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Concord, few of the undecideds said they were considering fellow-ideological traveler Sanders. And at a Joe Biden event in Manchester, many attendees had an eye on Michael Bloomberg, though the former New York City mayor isn’t even competing in the state. Andy Boyle, a Manchester resident, had literally run into two presidential candidates this cycle while on jogs (Warren and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard). And yet, he was still unclear about his over voting preferences with only days to go.
That uncertainty has led to unpredictability. And as voters head to the polls on Tuesday, few prognosticators in the state were making predictions with much conviction. There was, instead, a compelling case to be made for each candidate in the field overperforming and underperforming. Here’s how.
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Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Why he will disappoint: There aren’t many candidates with sturdier bases than Sanders. OK, no one has a sturdier base, which means that the floor for his performance is solid. The question is the ceiling. And here is where he might come up short of expectations. Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 with 60 percent of the vote. That’s not gonna happen this time. But he may have additional struggles winning over undecided voters. A number of them at various rallies for other candidates said they liked Sanders as a person and on the issues. But what was keeping them away were his supporters, who have not hidden their disdain for others in the race. Sanders has made repeated gestures towards unifying the party, but that hasn’t always translated to his supporters. Many of them loudly booed Buttigeig with “Wall Street Pete” chants at the Democratic Party dinner on Saturday. That obviously didn’t endear Pete supporters to Sanders’ campaign. But it also has turned off supporters of other candidates, too.
Why he will beat expectations: No one has more money and, arguably, no one has a better organization. Sanders said on Monday that two days ago, his campaign workers knocked on 20 percent of all the doors in New Hampshire. ALL the doors. Beyond that, the rest of the field is horribly splintered, making the most likely outcome that Sanders will emerge with his second popular vote victory in as many contests.
Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg
Why he will disappoint: There is no denying that large crowds are coming to see the former mayor, and in notable places too. The campaign said that more than 1,250 people came to an event in Salem, a southern New Hampshire town that has gone Republican in past cycles. But it’s unclear if those people are coming out of curiosity or genuine support. At the Salem event, a fair number of attendees ducked out before Buttigieg started speaking. And though he has presented himself as an Obama-like figure (in the sense that he’s calling for political practicality and generational change) there was hardly the enthusiasm behind his campaign that the former president experienced when he went to New Hampshire as a newcomer in 2008.
Obama famously lost that vote.
Why he will beat expectations: Buttigieg’s aides seem confident and for good reason. His campaign is well organized in the state and there are a host of independent voters who may choose to vote in the primary because they are naturally receptive to his message. He’s spent good money and the press attention has only amplified. On Sunday, Buttigieg did all six Sunday shows—a superficial metric but one that the campaign has successfully used to bolster his position. He’s also outworking a lot of his opponents. The Saturday after the debate, he held six events in New Hampshire and his campaign knocked on more doors that day than any full week of the entire campaign.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Why she will disappoint: Prognosticators have been predicting a Klobuchar bump for weeks now and one hasn’t truly materialized. So all the buzz around her could just be that, buzz. She also is playing a bit of -up. The fundraising numbers have improved recently. But they didn’t get better early enough to allow her to build the type of campaign infrastructure in New Hampshire that her competitors have fine-tuned for months.
Why she will beat expectations: That said, no candidate in the field has had more positive press this week. And no one has seen as much movement in the daily tracking polls. Part of this is due to a strong debate performance on Friday. But there also seems to be a genuine appeal to independent-minded voters. More than one operative in the state has called her the John McCain of this cycle, a reference to the late Arizona senator who scored big wins in New Hampshire during his two presidential bids, predominantly on crafting a straight-talker image. Klobuchar has fostered the comparisons strategically. Her campaign leaked that she has been in touch with McCain’s widow, Cindy. And she has turned her stump speech into a mix of awe-shucks Midwest niceties, old school political independence (scolding the liberals in her party for their lack of practicality), and—to put it plainly—humor.
“We will build a fridge to the 21st century,” she proclaimed at a stop in Salem Sunday night, before deadpanning to the crowd that that was, indeed, a “bad climate change joke.”
Helping matters is the fact that the cash is now rolling in. Her campaign raised $3 million in the two days following the Friday debate, a sum that represented more than a quarter of the total she raised in the last three months of 2019.
Former Vice President Joe Biden
Why he will disappoint: How much time do you have? The former VP has run what is widely regarded as a listless campaign. He’s shown up late for events, sapping the energy out of his crowds. Voters in the state have said that his campaign operation has been relatively muted compared to others in the race. And even one prominent congressional supporter conceded to The Daily Beast that the former VP desperately needed to show more life at his events. “Throw a punch!” the member said.
It didn’t help matters when, in his first debate answer, Biden all but conceded that he will likely lose New Hampshire. That may have been a savvy way of setting expectations low, but a few Democratic operatives have privately wondered whether Biden would have been better effectively skipping New Hampshire all together—ceding it to the two senators who hail from neighboring states—and making a more aggressive stand in South Carolina, where a larger African-American voting bloc could prop him back up.
Why he will beat expectations: There is some history of voters in New Hampshire being uncomfortable writing a politician’s political obituary (see: Clinton, Hillary, 2008). And more than a few voters here have expressed genuine sympathy for Biden and the way he has been portrayed in the press. Sympathy votes may not be plentiful. But combine them with Biden’s brand name and there is a path for him to do better than the overwhelming cynicism suggests.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Why she will disappoint: Her supporters are committed. But those leaning towards her are probably among the more anxious people in New Hampshire, loving her biography and policy proposals but deeply concerned about her general election viability. Some of this is gendered. Some of it is exaggerated. But as one top operative noted, some of it is a genuine reaction to polling numbers. In particular, a consequential November New York Times poll of general election matchups in key swing states showed Warren doing worse against Trump than other Democrats. That, in turn, left people unsettled.
Why she will beat expectations: Campaigns don’t come that much more organized than this. A Warren canvassing rally is a lesson in electoral politics 101. Volunteers were handed detailed voter packages, easy to follow maps, a bevy of campaign literature and the keys to an app that allows them to do real-time data input. And they take it seriously. One man who had come from Maryland to help out was handwriting notes on individual door hangers with the conviction that a voter would be persuaded by the personal touch. This type of grunt work can be effective. Despite the media chatter about a stalled candidacy, Warren finished a pretty solid third in Iowa. A similar showing isn’t out of the realm of possibility even as expectations are for her to falter.
Andrew Yang
Why he will disappoint: Yang’s campaign raised a lot of money and got a lot of buzz through an unconventional media strategy (heavy on podcasts and memes) and unorthodox proposals (mainly, universal basic income). And yet, he had a disappointing finish in Iowa and, following that, much of the buzz and attention has dissipated as well.
Why he will beat expectations: New Hampshire voters are famously libertarian leaning. And few, if any, in the field appeal to that mindset more than Yang, whose basic calling card is that he wants to give people $1,000 checks every month and let them do with it as they want. That could resonate with a portion of the electorate who finds the rest of the field otherwise uninspiring.
Tom Steyer
Why he will disappoint: He’s signalled that he’s writing the state off, even leaving New Hampshire on Monday to go to South Carolina where his advertising blitz has him well-positioned to win a serious chunk of votes. Generally speaking, ditching a state days before people vote doesn’t go over too well.
Why he will beat expectations: He’s still spending tons of money in New Hampshire. In fact, half of all television ad spending has come from Steyer’s campaign.
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
Why she will disappoint: The inroads she had made among those progressive liberal types who are angry with the Democratic Party seem to have dried up. And there is no clear constituency for her among the primary electorate. She got the worst speaking slot at the state Democratic Party dinner and it was apparent in the fact that the audience was largely leaving while she spoke.
Why she will beat expectations: Anecdotally, several voters said she was among those they were considering because of her independence from party and her background as a vet. Boyle, the jogger who met two candidates, said he was considering her for this very reason. But even beating expectations won’t amount to much for Gabbard, who isn’t expected to play much of the disruptive role that folks in the party initially feared.
Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)
Why he will disappoint: He won’t because he can’t. There are no expectations.
Why he will beat expectations: You’d be shocked by how many random people walking on the streets of Manchester said they liked the senator. His event with longtime Demoocratic strategist James Carville was buzzed about for days, though largely because of the vile imagery Carville drew of how Bennet would impact Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
