An Anonymous Oscar Voter Spills All the Tea on the Ansel Elgort Problem and ‘The Power of the Dog’ Winning Big

Three hosts instead of none? Eight categories presented before the telecast, then edited for quicker consumption? Feel-good coming-of-age story CODA aiming to upset the year’s gloomiest art film The Power of the Dog?

The Academy Awards, airing this Sunday, March 27, will be a lot of things, but it probably won’t be boring. So, for the eighth consecutive year, I turned to an anonymous Oscar voter for their thoughts on just what could happen.

Hello, anonymous Oscar voter. I felt that last year’s heavy-handed, indulgent Oscars—necessarily scaled-down for the COVID era—was torture, especially since they barely bothered to show film clips. Agreed?

Absolutely one billion percent agreed. It had little to do with respect for the films. And they never cut anybody off, so it dragged on. It didn’t feel very choreographed. They put all their eggs in one basket and the basket fell.

Will this year’s be better? At least they have a host—in fact, three in Wanda Sykes, Amy Schumer and Regina Hall.

I don’t think the issue was that they didn’t have a host. The issue was that they didn’t want to trade on what was being awarded. This year, even though they have three hosts, it sounds like they’re still trying to go with the gimmicky shtick. I have faith in those three, but I don’t have faith in how they’re going to be used. I loved Billy Crystal and Whoopi Goldberg. In the case of Billy, in everything he did, from the monologue, where he did a song based on the Best Picture picks, to everything presented, he’d always emphasize the films. But this year, I think they purposely chose three people who’d just do more shtick, like Jimmy Kimmel bringing a busload of people onto the stage or Ellen ordering pizza.

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Not to gossip, but Disney didn’t invite West Side Story costar Rachel Zegler—who won a Golden Globe—to be at the Oscars, but the Academy has gotten around that by now making her a presenter. Do you think she was originally snubbed because they didn’t want to also have to invite co-star Ansel Elgort, who might have to answer red carpet questions about his allegations? I’m just guessing here.

I agree with you 100 billion percent that they didn’t invite her on purpose because they didn’t want to invite him. Making her a presenter was an inspired way out.

Of course, if I see Ansel there, I’ll know my theory was wrong.

Yes, but I bet you 10 to one he won’t be there.

Also missing from the VIP list seem to be the people in the eight categories that will be presented before the telecast. Thoughts?

I think it’s the worst mistake they can possibly make. You don’t improve an awards show by editing the very thing it’s supposed to be... the awards. You improve the presentation instead. So if this is the Academy’s way of thinking that will do that, then they may not be as aware of who they are to begin with, which is why the Oscar shows have been slipping further and further down.

As for the awards themselves: At the Critics’ Choice Awards, Jane Campion said that King Richard subjects (and producers) Serena and Venus Williams were marvels, but they “don’t play against the guys, like I have to.” Her presumptuous remark caused a stir and she later apologized, but will this gaffe hurt the chances of Power of the Dog?

It definitely didn’t hurt it for me because I didn’t know about it. I voted for Campion for Best Director and Dog for Best Film. Now that I’ve heard about it, I’m pretty sure she said it thinking they weren’t directors, not having to deal with that society, but it’s a bad choice of things to say. It might have affected my vote.

So, wait a minute: You don’t vote solely based on the work? You’d factor in a remark?

It depends. It shouldn’t. [pauses] No, actually, that’s a tough question because the work should speak for itself. Actually, it shouldn’t affect me, and I guess it wouldn’t have swayed me, but it will sway some people. A comment like that could cost her, though I think she’s still going to win.

That film’s biggest rival, CODA, is basically an oxymoron—a crowd-pleasing box office flop that never found a crowd. Could it win Best Picture because it’s feel-good, along with being a rare look at people with disabilities?

I think the reason it got nominated was because it was feel-good and people loved it because it’s very sweet, but generally, Best Picture doesn’t go to films that are just sweet.

What about Green Book?

Green Book had an edge to it, which CODA does as well, but Green Book had a much bigger statement as to that time period and factors that were going on. CODA is something literally based on “feel-good,” about people with disabilities, while The Power of Dog constantly reveals different aspects to the characters. By the end, it becomes a completely different picture. I think that will win.

Will Smith seems to have Best Actor locked up for his quirky yet inspiring King Richard performance, complete with an Oscar bait speech, though Benedict Cumberbatch is a solid runner-up as Dog’s toxically macho closet case.

Yes, Will Smith looks like a slam dunk, but I did vote for Cumberbatch. I think Will is due, frankly, because he’s done stellar performances throughout his career and has never been acknowledged for them. He’ll win, partly because he gave a heartfelt performance in King Richard, but I also think it’s for his body of work. Cumberbatch really lived his role and didn’t bathe for two weeks and he was great, and I think he’s due as well, but it’s a battle of “Who is due more?” I think it’s going to go to Will.

Best Actress seems like a bit of a wild card, though I think it will go to the very game Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

I agree. I voted for Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos because I have an affinity for that movie all around. I thought she did a remarkable job—not at the very beginning, when it threw me, but by the very end, I was sold. But Jessica will win. She really embodied that character from beginning to end and she dressed the part. She became that character, both physically and character-wise. And, like Will Smith, she’s due.

Best Supporting Actor seems to be a showdown between Troy Kotsur, who is the deaf dad in CODA, and Kodi Smit-McPhee, the bullied fey kid in The Power of the Dog. Battle of the oppressed?

I met Kodi and he’s super nice. He’s not quite exactly like his character, but it didn’t feel as much as he was acting in the film as being himself. Not the super fey part, but still, it was less acting. Because it’s his first time out, it’s impossible to tell if in his next role, he’ll do the same thing.

But how do we know that Troy Kotsur can be a chameleon?

I didn’t vote for either. I voted for J.K. Simmons as William Frawley in Being the Ricardos. He starts out as a nonentity—Fred Mertz—and at the end, he really was a powerhouse in that film. J.K. has proven he can become different people. In this case, it was unexpected. He gave a startling performance out of the blue. But I think the winner will be Kodi.

And finally: Best Supporting Actress seems to be heading toward Ariana DeBose for West Side Story. If she wins, she’ll be the second Anita to win, since Rita Moreno—her current West Side Story costar—won in 1962. My personal fave, though, was Aunjanue Ellis.

Which one was she?

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Will Smith’s supportive but strong wife in King Richard. She’s a wonderful actor.

Well, when I saw Ariana DeBose’s performance, I thought, “Where the hell did she come from? Why haven’t I seen her before?” It’s like she stepped into the movie having 50 years’ experience already. I’m sure people felt the same way when they saw Barbra Streisand in Funny Girl. I’m hoping it’s a slam dunk for Ariana. This is like watching the birth of something new. It’s the first shot out of the gate for her. Unlike Kodi. He was definitely not explosive.

What about Dog’s Kirsten Dunst? It’s her first nomination. You loved the film, so why not vote for her as Best Supporting Actress?

I actually didn’t like her in the film, frankly—especially when she became an alcoholic. The only performance that mattered was Benedict Cumberbatch. Any other character could have been given to someone else and it would have been the same movie.

One last question: Are you looking forward to Sunday’s awards or dreading them?

I’m kind of dreading them. It could be another train wreck. I’m hoping to be pleasantly surprised, but I’m not going in there expecting much.