Six months into Joe Biden’s presidency, we are starting to see evidence that the tide may be turning against him. The main culprit is the Delta variant that has upended hopes of having turned the corner on COVID-19. But a confluence of concerns (like inflation, violent crime, and the border) are also helping erode optimism about the future.
Until recently, there was a sense that COVID-19 was waning and by competently overseeing the distribution of vaccines, Biden would preside over a recovery where life would return to normal and the economy would bounce back. But the Delta variant has caused us to reconsider and revise many of our assumptions, including the political implications of presiding over the recovery. Consider this tweet from Bill Kristol, the NeverTrump conservative who has been very pro-Biden: “I am alarmed… about COVID, and how the broad social and economic reopening people are counting on is at risk. And I’m alarmed [that] the Biden Administration doesn’t seem alarmed enough, and doesn’t seem to have enough urgency about this threat.” Thanks to the rise of the Delta variant, the U.S. has decided not to lift travel restrictions, and Goldman Sachs has decided to revise downwards a bit its forecast of surging economic growth.
Perhaps more concerning is a new ABC/Ipsos survey showing that Americans’ optimism about the country has “plummeted” almost 20 points in the last couple of months (as recently as May, this same poll showed Americans were optimistic about the future). Not surprisingly, it also shows a decrease in support for Biden’s handling of a wide range of issues, including COVID, immigration, crime and violence, and the country’s economic recovery. (On the economy, at least, this is not an outlier; an AP/NORC poll also shows that “Fewer than half, 45% [of Americans surveyed], judge the economy to be in good shape, while 54% say it’s in poor shape.”)
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Surveys are always a lagging indicator. Storm clouds have been gathering for months. And while this shift in public opinion is new and concerning, recent developments have made it almost inevitable.
The latest speculation about “breakthrough infections” and adding a third “booster” shot are especially discouraging and demoralizing to the people who previously bought into the hope that getting fully vaccinated meant they would have something like complete immunity. Having endured extended periods of shutdowns and social distancing, vaccinated Americans feel duped—like they are victims of a sort of bait-and-switch. (“Two weeks to slow the spread,” as Biden’s predecessor once proclaimed.) Speaking of Trump, it’s worth noting that he, and the Republicans, and Fox News—by talking down vaccines and, before that, mitigation strategies like masks—have contributed to this problem. But experts keep changing the rules, even for those of us who played by them. With school right around the corner, it’s a particularly difficult time to resume talks about lockdowns and masking—even if there are real reasons for this new talk of changing direction. COVID hospitalizations are on the rise, with Florida and other red states surging.
Again, though, COVID is only part of Biden’s problem.
Crime was the most important issue among Democrats in the New York City mayoral race, helping propel retired police officer Eric Adams to the nomination. Recently, New York's Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo had this to say about the problem: “If you look at the recent numbers, more people are now dying from gun violence and crime than Covid.” In terms of the economy, Foreign Policy notes, “A surprising 5.4 percent spike in the consumer price index in June, the swiftest rise in 13 years, spurred so many fresh inflation fears that Biden felt compelled to talk them down at a news conference this week…” Keep in mind that, for months, Larry Summers, a top Obama economic adviser, has been warning the Biden administration about inflation, and for months, Biden and his team downplayed concerns. (As long as we’re talking about the economy, in fairness, it should be mentioned that the U.S. added 850,000 jobs in June, which was more than anticipated.) And on the issue of immigration, June’s border crossings constituted “the largest number in a single month in recent history.” Keep in mind that, for months, Biden refused to call the border surge a “crisis.” And keep in mind that, for a while now, Democrats representing border states like Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar have been urging Biden to do more to stop the influx of migrants.
Whether the issue is crime, the economy, or immigration, two things have been consistent: There is bipartisan concern, and Team Biden’s first reaction has been to downplay those concerns. Unfortunately, ignoring these problems has not caused them to go away. And while it’s thankfully not yet clear that all of them will continue to metastasize, to quote Kevin Costner, “We’re dealing with a lot of shit.”
Coming in on the heels of a chaotic Trump presidency, Biden was afforded considerable leeway. Many Americans, never mind a liberal press corps, were willing to overlook Biden’s failings and gaffes, which seem to pale in comparison to Trump’s. What is more, we assumed (perhaps wrongly) that he would preside over a springtime of vaccinations and a concomitant economic recovery, what with all the pent-up demand. But as spring faded into summer and fall (and winter) loom closer, reality is starting to set in, and some of the president’s promises are starting to fall short.
Biden told us that 70 percent of adults would be vaccinated by July 4—a goal he missed. His speech that day was titled, “Remarks by President Biden Celebrating Independence Day and Independence from COVID-19” (italics mine). In fairness, he said, “We’ve got a lot more work to do,” but it was still pretty close to a “Mission Accomplished” declaration. Then again, he also told us that inflation was “transitory” and that the border crisis was “cyclical.” The COVID proclamation now looks wildly premature. At this point, can we really take him at his word?
It’s starting to look like the answer to that question is a “no,” and once that becomes the general consensus of the American public, a politician is in deep trouble.
