It looked like a MAGA match-up for the ages: two of the most Trump-aligned Republicans anywhere in the country—Kari Lake and Blake Masters—squaring off against each other for a shot at the U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).
Lake, the Trump-obsessed failed gubernatorial candidate who continues to deny the 2020 election and her own 2022 defeat, is all but certain to launch a Senate campaign this fall.
Masters, a hard-right Peter Thiel acolyte who lost his 2022 Senate bid after running a dark and dystopian campaign, is gearing up to launch his bid for the GOP nomination, according to a Wall Street Journal story last week.
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Running on the GOP ticket last year, the two campaigned across the state together, with one Arizona strategist saying they “genuinely like[d] each other” and “drew very close” on the campaign trail.
But the 37-year old Masters was known to be itching for another shot at the Senate, and the Journal’s report—which included the detail he had already taped his campaign video—suggested he’d be willing to take on his old friend in order to get there.
Suddenly, however, sources close to Masters are doubting whether he will go through with a campaign that would entail a brutal cage fight of a primary match against his former ally.
“Look, I don’t think he’s running,” a Republican operative who’s spoken with Masters about the matter told The Daily Beast. “I always thought this was a trial balloon.”
“Quite frankly, he’s never publicly acknowledged that he wants to get into the race,” the operative added. “There is not one comment.”
Another source close to the 2022 Senate candidate agreed that Masters might be reconsidering a campaign, while a third GOP source said it would be surprising if he went through with it.
Arizona Republican operative Barrett Marson told The Daily Beast he isn’t convinced that Masters will run for the seat.
“I’m not buying it yet,” Mason said.
On Saturday, The New York Times reported that Masters and Trump had a “blunt” phone call last Sunday when the former president laced into Masters for not promoting claims of election fraud.
“Look at Kari—Kari’s winning with very little money,” Trump said to Masters, according to The Times. “And if they say, ‘How is your family?’ She says, ‘The election was rigged and stolen.’ You’ll lose if you go soft. You’re going to lose that base.”
The report also claimed Masters has been questioning behind the scenes whether or not Lake will actually run for the seat.
A source close to Lake fired back on that point.
“Blake Masters was outspent by $70 million dollars and completely reliant on a single Big Tech benefactor,” Lake’s senior adviser, Caroline Wren, told The Daily Beast, taking a swipe at Thiel. “If he believes that the party needs someone with a proven ability to fund-raise, then he’s not the guy.”
Masters didn’t return multiple requests from The Daily Beast for comment on this story. Adding to the confusion, some Republican insiders told The Daily Beast they do believe that Masters will ultimately run.
But the consensus within Arizona GOP circles was that Masters is a lot further from jumping in than it may have seemed.
Why exactly Masters might reconsider a run is unclear. Within Trump’s orbit, there is a sense that it would be highly difficult for him to defeat Lake in a primary—and that it would be difficult for him to win the former president’s endorsement over her. Notably, Trump endorsed both Lake and Masters in their respective primaries last year, adding complexity to the dynamics if they were to both enter the race.
Beyond that, it’s not inevitable that Masters’ biggest benefactor, Thiel, would help him in 2024 as much as he did in 2022, when he spent $17 million to support his campaign. His five-point defeat to Sen. Mark Kelly (D) was one of the GOP’s biggest disappointments of last year’s midterm election, and his campaign attracted national attention for its gloomy tone and the candidate’s own far-right beliefs.
Whatever decision Masters makes, it will significantly shape one of the marquee Senate contests of 2024, which could easily sway party control of the chamber next year. In Arizona, the GOP could benefit from an unusual general election environment, in which the centrist Sinema runs as an independent and Rep. Ruben Gallego as the Democratic nominee. (Sinema has not yet announced her plans.)
A nasty and expensive primary between Lake and Masters, however, could harm the GOP’s chances. But some Republicans worry that Lake is so toxic in a general election that handing her the nomination would ensure the race is over before it begins.
“She’s a guaranteed L,” said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime GOP strategist and pollster in the state. “She can’t win a general election.”
Despite Masters’ drawbacks as a candidate, observers like Coughlin see him as someone who could at least keep the race competitive for Republicans—if he rebrands himself.
“This is not going to be easy, but is there a lane there that permits him to frame his candidacy around someone who can win the seat,” Coughlin said. “He ran against a much better candidate than she did. He was much more competitive with Kelly than she could be with a Gallego or a Sinema.”
Lake’s supposed allies in Trumpworld may know it too—despite the chatter that the former president would back her again or even consider her as his 2024 vice presidential candidate.
“It’s hard to see Blake beating her in a primary,” a Trump adviser said. “So the hope is that Kari finally gets serious about running a real campaign with competent help, rather than the goofballs and drama queens she’s had around her before.”
“Everyone loves Blake. He’s brilliant and is a true believer in the MAGA issues,” this Trump adviser added. “But it’s impossible to deny Kari is a charismatic talent and also got closer to winning than Blake did last time.”
Likewise, an operative close to the Trump campaign wondered what Trump would get out of endorsing Lake or Masters early in the primary.
“What does he gain out of endorsing in the race?” this source said.
But some in Trump’s orbit are wary enough of Lake that they’ve quietly tried to recruit her 2022 GOP primary rival, Karrin Taylor Robson, into the Senate race. Robson has publicly said she will not run, but one Trump-aligned operative recently reached out to her to urge her to reconsider, according to a source familiar with the call. The source added Robson remains committed to not running for the seat.
A Trump-friendly GOP stalwart, Robson is seen as a candidate who could unite party factions and compete in a general election—in part thanks to her family’s immense wealth. Robson narrowly lost to Lake in the 2022 governor primary after spending $15 million of her family’s fortune in the race.
Neither a Lake spokesperson nor a Trump spokesperson returned The Daily Beast’s requests for comment on this story.
According to two sources familiar with the matter, Trump hasn’t decided whom he might support in a Lake-Masters showdown. Lake, of course, has not even entered the race yet, with one source aware of her plans saying she is targeting an October campaign launch date.
With the race potentially evolving into a nasty MAGAworld battle, some Trumpworld operatives have sought to avoid the race altogether.
As for Lake’s team, they’ve already begun attacking Masters.
At the end of August, a Lake campaign “WarRoom” Twitter account ripped into Masters for joining a Twitter Spaces conversation with Arizona state House candidate Andrew Jackson.
Jackson, a pastor who is known for interviewing Arizona political notables, was a supporter of Lake’s but has since taken issue with her approach to alleged election irregularities.
“It’s great to have you back, Blake!” the account wrote. “We hope your next interview is with someone who has not spent the last 9 months smearing Kari.”
Lake herself tagged Masters for a follow-up tweet, saying: “I hope you bring up election fraud, and Election crime. You’ve been quite silent. And ‘Dr’ Andrew doesn’t think it exists.” (For good measure, Lake added three cricket emojis to her tweet.)
“She has never talked to me personally,” Jackson responded when reached for comment on Lake’s team taking aim at him. “I’m for election integrity.”
Jackson also took issue with Lake’s blanket allegation of “election crime” in the 2020 election.
“Personal names are being used and said they’re criminals,” Jackson said. “And I’m just saying, constitutionally, I could never call somebody a criminal unless it’s proven in a court of law.”
