The stalled Harris campaign is alarming senior Democratic Party strategists who fear Donald Trump could gain the upper hand in the crucial Blue Wall states.
With a New York Times poll suggesting the Republicans will take control of the Senate in November, the vice president is facing her biggest test since taking over the Democratic presidential baton from Joe Biden.
Party leaders hoped Kamala Harris would ride her honeymoon boost all the way to the White House, but now they are openly admitting the campaign has got stuck… and there are signs it could even be sliding in some parts of the country.
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Harris’ carefully orchestrated media blitz this week, appearing on shows across the spectrum from 60 Minutes to Howard Stern, and her ability to outspend Trump, have not provided the kick-start her advisers hoped for.
David Axelrod, a senior advisor credited with Barack Obama’s 2008 win, told Axios that Harris “made steady, incremental progress in the 10 days after the (Sept. 10) debate, but now the race has plateaued.”
He added that she “had a great launch, right through the convention and the debate. But in these campaigns, every time you clear a bar, the bar gets raised. You have to lift your game and adjust your strategy.”
The takeaway is that the Harris campaign needs to act quickly or risk losing momentum altogether. James Carville appeared to back that up, telling Axios the Harris campaign “needs to be more aggressive.”
Crucially, the cracks have started to show in the so-called Blue Wall states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The latest polls put the nominees in a statistical tie across the three battleground states.
With many pundits suggesting that the eventual winner on Nov. 5 will be the one who takes Pennsylvania, both parties are plowing record amounts into the race there, said to be a total of upwards of $350 million.
A Quinnipiac University poll puts Harris narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania by 49 percent to 46 percent, but Democrats are increasingly worried that she has not locked it down.
In Michigan, the same poll puts the vice president three points behind Trump.
“People need to see the real Kamala Harris. They need to let her get in union halls and just talk to people. Whatever you think about Trump, he’s personable,” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich).
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich) warned donors last month that the party’s presidential hopeful was “underwater” in Michigan, adds Axios.
Nevertheless, a Detroit News poll gives Harris a three-point advantage in the state.
Smelling blood in Wisconsin, where he is a point or so ahead in the polls, Trump visited the state four times in eight days.
Just how many swing voters there are to impress is another question for debate. “We’re dealing with a polarized electorate—cycle after cycle, the pool of true swing voters just gets smaller and smaller,” a Harris official told Axios.
The latest on Capitol Hill offers little succor to the Harris campaign with a New York Times/Siena College predicting that power in the Senate could flip to the Republicans in the fall.
In Montana, Democratic Senator Jon Tester is falling behind his GOP challenger despite being far more popular than Harris at the top of the ticket.
Tester is currently eight points behind in the polls to Republican former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. If he loses his seat it could be enough for the Democrats to cede control in the Senate, as the Republicans are expected to pick up the open seat left by retiring Joe Manchin in West Virginia.
Chances of the Democrats flipping any Republican seats in November are slim, says the Times.
Harris is not going to win over Montana. Trump is beating her hands down on every issue there. But it seems that if she doesn’t find another gear, the Blue Wall could come tumbling down around her as well.
