CASTLETON-ON-HUDSON, New York—Fresh off of a sunset helicopter ride, Lee Zeldin was feeling good and letting the dad jokes flow.
The Republican Long Island congressman was feeling the mojo so much that he compared his longshot gubernatorial campaign not only to those of repeat New York victors such as Sen. Chuck Schumer and former Gov. George Pataki—the last Republican to win statewide back in 2002—but also Prince, of all people.
“And with all apologies to Prince, as I thought of a few days ago, I think New York is ready to party like it’s 1994,” Zeldin said Thursday after the chopper landed ahead of his rally, referring to Pataki’s surprise victory over former Gov. Mario Cuomo.
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He even encouraged New Yorkers to vote by mail if they aren’t able to show up on Election Day, telling reporters he’s confident in the state’s absentee voting system despite some qualms he had with the pandemic expansions made in 2020.
“I would strongly encourage anybody who cannot vote in-person to make sure they request an absentee ballot and get that ballot in,” Zeldin said when asked by The Daily Beast if he has confidence in mail-in voting, adding that New York has procedures “stricter than red states” that should inspire confidence.
In other words, Zeldin thinks he can win, and he can’t afford to hamper his campaign by purely sticking to the Trump playbook.
He mixed the usual GOP talking points on crime and inflation with his own brand of humor, joking that visiting all 62 counties in New York should henceforth be known as “the full Zeldin” instead of “the full Schumer.”
And while the chopper photo-op may have fallen short, with the shot of the helicopter landing obstructed by trees and a pre-arranged crowd of supporters holding signs, Zeldin and his big-ticket surrogate, Rep. Elise Stefanik, couldn’t have cared less.
For the pair of Empire State Republicans, Thursday night’s rally in front of more than 3,000 was a homecoming of sorts.
Zeldin went to Albany Law School and Stefanik attended Albany Academy for Girls, both institutions with tightly knit local alumni networks prone to agita over the pair of lawmakers’ embrace of former President Donald Trump.
But around the clubhouse of this otherwise sleepy golf course about 20 minutes south of Albany, Zeldin and Stefanik were the homecoming king and queen, with local candidates and throngs of supporters looking to get some face time with both members of Congress.
Stefanik said the crowd was the biggest she’s seen for a rally in upstate New York in recent memory and promised voters they’d have a “once in a century” chance to flip the script by ousting Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has yet to face voters after taking over for Andrew Cuomo in the wake of his August 2021 resignation.
Zeldin framed his campaign as wanting to “restore balance” to Albany, making an appeal to independent voters and disaffected Democrats.
So far, the numbers have yet to bear that out, though Zeldin couldn’t ask for a better election week polling picture, having closed the gap from almost 20 points in July to just 7 points with five days to go, according to FiveThirtyEight's model.
The main issue for Zeldin is the Democratic Party’s two-to-one registration advantage over the GOP across the state, and five-to-one in New York City.
Even if Zeldin got every single general election Trump voter in New York to show up again, he would need Democratic turnout to fall below 60 percent of 2020 levels to have any shot at winning, according to a data analysis from The City.
Registered Democrats have already surpassed their early and absentee vote totals from 2020 and 2018 so far this cycle, while Republicans and independents have not shown a similar increase.
That leaves massive crowds on Election Day and much higher than usual turnout in the upstate and Long Island regions as Zeldin’s main source of hope, but rally attendees were feeling just as confident as the Prince-inspired candidate.
For Josh Kowalski, a 47-year-old from nearby Altamont who works in construction, the whole night was abnormal in the best of ways.
“Look, we don’t get this kind of atmosphere in upstate New York,” Kowalski told The Daily Beast. “Usually we know the results before the election.”
Kowalski, like other attendees, said this is the first time since the Pataki era that Republicans feel like one of their own actually has a real chance in New York.
Jeff Cintula, an engineer from Burnt Hills, listed bail reform and inflation as his top two issues.
As someone who has grown accustomed to Republicans getting walloped statewide and settling for state legislative or congressional victories here and there, Cintula said he thinks this election might finally be the one.
Peering over the crowd as dozens more voters waited in line and dozens more struggled to find parking, Cintula couldn’t help but feel the Zeldin-mentum.
“There’s enough buzz,” he said. “Just look at this place.”
