Finally—the debates are here! I’ve been following the build-up to 2020 for quite a while and much of it has been leading up to this exact moment, when 20 candidates will face off on stage for the first time.
It’s unknowable what will happen, aside from a few procedural details that have been announced. But working with what we are aware of so far—the location and venue, the stage lineup, and the intra-party fighting that has ensued much of last week—I’d like to share a few things I’m looking out for, with the caveat that it might all change.
My colleague Gideon Resnick and I will be reporting live from Miami. You can follow us here and keep up with the rest of The Daily Beast’s coverage on our website and on Twitter.
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ALL ABOUT BIDEN. You may have guessed this one, but I would be remiss not to mention the man of the moment. The former vice president announced his candidacy later than nearly everyone and is still ahead in all the national polls. Pollsters have shouted from the rooftops that his early lead is largely due to name ID, and we’ll get a good sense of whether that is still true after the debates. Going into the sparring match, Biden has had a bad few weeks of press. Earlier this month, he faced scrutiny over his support of the Hyde Amendment, which he abruptly changed positions on after negative pressure mounted. Then he refused to apologize after reminiscing about working alongside segregationists to get things done throughout his Senate career. Then came another layer: saying that Cory Booker, the senator from New Jersey who called on Biden to apologize for his remarks, should apologize to him instead. Voters remember Biden as being gaffe-prone the two times he previously ran for president. But his knee-jerk reaction to call out a rival for something he was being criticized for could be a preview of what’s to come on Thursday night. Booker and Biden won’t be on stage together, but nearly all other top-tier Democrats who spoke out against Biden’s remarks will be, and they might use their time to nail him on this issue.
THE PROGRESSIVES ON STAGE. The DNC quite strategically decided to do a random drawing to select which candidates would end up together on stage each night. This places the top two progressives in the contest, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (MA), on different days. Sanders, who is debating on the second night against Biden and other rivals Sens. Kamala Harris (CA), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, will have much of the left-lane’s attention to himself. While contenders have generally shifted leftward to capture some of the progressive energy Sanders enjoyed in 2016, his supporters believe he is the best one to make the case to voters. Notably, he’ll be up against several more centrist-leaning candidates, including Biden, Buttigieg, and his chief attack dog former Colorado Gov. John Hicklooper, who will all likely try to provide a stark contrast to the Vermont senator.
Warren, on the other hand, will have much of the progressive lane to herself in kicking off the first debate on Wednesday night. She’ll also face off against moderates, including Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN), Rep. Tim Ryan (OH), and former Rep. John Delaney (MD), but will be the only top-tier contender, by polling standards, on stage. Warren has surged recently and received a high-volume of positive press coverage for her wonky policy rollouts and improvements in retail politicking. Other lesser known candidates have every reason to attack her. I’ll be watching to see if anyone can land a few jabs successfully, and if she can translate some of the energy she brings to the stump to the national stage.
MULTIPLE WOMEN ON STAGE. One former top campaign official who’s done debate prep pointed this out to me: we’ve never seen multiple female candidates on stage at one time. On Wednesday night, Warren, Klobuchar and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) will each have chances to earn support from what will be one of the biggest voting blocs in 2020, female voters. The following night, Harris, Gillibrand and spiritual author Marianne Williamson will spar against all-white male rivals on stage. Gillibrand has dominated the #MeToo landscape, while Warren and Harris have each come out with detailed policies around childcare and teacher pay, top issues that broadly appeal to women voters. A female candidate is uniquely positioned this time around to make a case that she is the natural successor to pick up where Hillary Clinton came short.
A BREAKOUT MOMENT. This is harder to pin down, but I’ll know it when I see it. There are a few lower-polling candidates who have a shot at a breakout moment, including former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, the only Latino candidate in the mix, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who’s running a campaign based solely on climate change, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang, an outsider with a small but loyal army of online supporters. So far, all three have failed to gain mainstream momentum, but in a forum that places a premium on showmanship and an ability to resonate with a televised audience, this could be their make-or-break shot to stand out. I’ll also be watching to see if former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who skyrocketed to national fame in 2018, can recapture some of that momentum on stage after a lagging rollout to his presidential run.
WILL TRUMP TWEET? I’ll be scanning Twitter all night to see if the president live-tweets the event. Trump has repeatedly attacked many of the 2020 Democrats who will be on stage both nights. I’m curious to see if he tries to fact-check policy points in real-time, or if he decides to introduce new nicknames to any of the candidates he hasn’t yet mocked.
FLORIDA INFLUENCERS TO WATCH: While we’re at it, here are some of the top people in Florida Democratic politics to keep an eye on over the next few days and throughout the 2020 election.
-Jane Castor: the first out lesbian mayor of Tampa, former police chief of Tampa. Her wife Ana Cruz is a top lobbyist and a former executive director of the Florida Democratic Party.
-Terrie Rizzo and Juan Penalosa: the chair and executive director of the Florida Democratic Party.
-State Reps. Ana Eskamani, Carlos Guillermo Smith, and Ida Eskamani: Orlando activists and elected officials who are quickly gaining statewide profiles as fierce advocates of women’s rights, reproductive justice, and LGBTQ rights.
-Chris Korge: The DNC tapped Korge to be their new finance chair.
-Ashley Walker: National Campaign Manager for our Future.
