More than two years into his role at the CIA, Director Bill Burns has warned that the United States is seeing a time of change and transformation “that come along a couple of times a century.”
Speaking at the Baker Institute on Tuesday, Burns said that while America “still has a better hand to play than any of our rivals,” it is “no longer the only big kid on the geo-political block and our position at the head of the table isn’t guaranteed.”
He warned that China was clawing to run the table while Vladimir Putin’s Russia, full of “twisted ambition of a fading power,” wants to smash the table completely.
ADVERTISEMENT
Burns, who served twice in Russia as a diplomat, including U.S. Ambassador from 2005 to 2008, described Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as “brutish aggression.” He said he has watched and interacted with Putin “for a long time,” adding they had contributed to his grey hairs.
He said he had spoken with Putin personally before the Ukraine invasion at the request of President Biden, describing Putin as “profoundly mistaken in his assumptions” over his belief that Ukraine was “weak and divided” and “not a real country.” Putin, according to Burns, “conveyed that message clearly.”
Putin, he said, is “now in an uncomfortable and unaccustomed position of being on his back foot,” though the Russian president still believes he can wear down Ukraine and the West. “He remains convinced that Ukraine matters more for him than it does for us, I think Putin is as wrong in that bet as he was in his assumptions before his invasion,” Burns said.
He said the CIA assessment is that Putin “is not serious about negotiations” for a peace deal and “a great deal is at stake over the coming months.”
Burns noted the prospects of diplomacy will most likely be fought on the battlefield and “will come with inevitable escalatory risks.”
Putin “thinks and wants us to think that he can make time work for him,” Burns said.
But the Russian president faces his own fair share of dilemmas, Burns claimed, adding that heavy losses in military and manpower and dissatisfaction with the war at home are continuing to grow.
Despite the problems with Putin and Russia, however, Burns named China as the CIA’s biggest longterm priority.
“Managing a crucial and increasingly adversarial relationship with China will be the most significant test for American policymakers for decades to come,” he warned, adding that Russia has become “more and more dependent” on China and runs the risk of becoming an “economic colony of China over time.”
