CNN Data Analyst Harry Enten Explains How Trump Could Win

CNN senior political data reporter Harry Enten on Wednesday outlined what he deemed several factors favorable to Donald Trump’s chances at winning the 2024 election.

The first was voters’ favorable view of the country’s direction, which, according to an aggregate of polls, is sitting at 28 percent, according to Enten. He explained that since 1980, incumbent parties that win re-election do so when the average approval rating is 42 percent. Losses occur at around 25 percent.

“So the bottom line is very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point,” he said on CNN News Central. “It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with [when] it wins. In fact, I went back through history: There isn’t a single time in which 28 percent of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won.”

Democrats also face a gap in party registrations in tossup states like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

“Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk, and so the bottom line is if Republicans win come next week—Donald Trump wins come next week—the signs all along will have been obvious,” Enten said.

“We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low, and Republicans really registering in numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”

Enten said he will make a positive case for Vice President Kamala Harris winning later this week.