FOR WHOM THE BELL POLLS

CNN Data Guru Reveals Senate Nightmare Scenario for Trump

New polling data shows Democrats pulling ahead across battleground states.

President Donald Trump’s favorite pollster has outlined a frighteningly realistic path for Democrats to win a sweeping Senate majority.

According to a new analysis of The New York Times and Siena College polling data broadcast live on CNN News Central, Democrats hold advantages in five of seven high-stakes Senate races.

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The numbers show surprising strength across deep-red territory carried by Trump in the 2024 presidential election, putting Republican strategists on high alert as voters head to the polls.

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten, who Trump frequently compliments and whose work he shows at his rallies, outlined the shifting landscape during a news segment, pointing to polling leads for Democratic candidates in major battlegrounds.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 11 points. In Texas, James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by seven points. In Maine, Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Susan Collins by six points. Meanwhile, Sherrod Brown holds a six-point lead in Ohio, and Adam Hamilton carries a five-point advantage in Kansas—a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

“Looking in Michigan, all the talk about that with Abdul Al-Sayed and Mike Rogers, but El-Sayed up 11. Texas, James Talarico up seven. How about Maine? Susan Collins in big trouble. Troy Jackson up six. Ohio, six. Sherrod Brown, Kansas five, which hasn’t elected a Democratic Senate since Babe Ruth called a shot back in 1932,” Enten explained while mapping out the figures.

Tight contests in Alaska and Iowa also show Democrats holding nominal edges, creating a massive shift in baseline projections. If current polling numbers hold through Election Day, the Democratic tally jumps from 47 seats to 54—a net gain of seven seats that far exceeds the 51 needed for outright control.

“Of course, you need 51 for Democrats for control, but if those Times polls are right, 51 ain’t nothing. It could be all the way up to 54,” Enten noted.

While historical trends show Republicans beating final polling averages by 4.1 points in states Trump carried, Enten emphasized that polling errors can cut both ways. In recent midterm cycles, including 2022, polls consistently underestimated Democratic strength in close Senate races.

If polling undercounts Democrats to a similar degree, the Democratic caucus could reach 55 seats by flipping traditionally red strongholds like South Carolina.

“I’d rather be in the Democrats’ position than the Republicans’, but the bottom line is either party could, in fact, win the United States Senate with actual relative ease,” Enten concluded, underscoring the severe volatility facing the administration’s allies.

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Leigh KimminsReporter

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