CNN Election forecaster Harry Enten had some bad news for Democrats on Sunday.
The data guru joined the network’s Inside Politics program to predict that former President Donald Trump could win a “historic” portion of black and Hispanic voters in November—and pointed out that Republicans lead Democrats in party registration and identification for the first time in nearly 40 years, based on data from recent polling.
“At this particular hour, if you believe the polling, Donald Trump’s going to put up the best performance with Black voters since Richard Nixon in 1960,” Enten said, referencing Nixon’s first campaign for the White House that he lost to John F. Kennedy.
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According to data from the Pew Research Center cited in a New York Times/Siena College poll, Hillary Clinton won about 92 percent of Black voters, while Joe Biden won roughly 90 percent. The new polling shows Harris still winning with the demographic—but only with about 78 percent.
The same poll released on Sunday shows Harris winning Hispanic voters by about 56 percent to Trump’s 37 percent. Biden won the same demographic with about 62 percent, according to the data.
“Among Hispanic voters, Donald Trump is going to put up the best performance since 2004 with George W. Bush,” Enten told a CNN panel the same day.
He also pointed to polling that showed Republicans outpacing Democrats in party registration nationally for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president.
“The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now,” he said. “The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by 8. When the Republican party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is 3. Republicans right now, Manu, are doing even better than the average when they win.
“If there’s one little nugget that I think Republicans are really hopeful for, this party ID and this party registration data, it really points in a good direction for them and for Donald Trump,” Enten added.
He did, however, point out that both parties’ coalitions are changing in real time—and listed Harris’ rising numbers among college-educated voters as a potential counterbalance to Trump’s strengths with Black and Hispanic voters.
“The question ultimately is—is that enough to offset the strength that Kamala Harris has with white voters with a college degree? At this particular moment, she has the strongest margin with them than any Democrat going back since recorded history with polling, I guess since 1948, 1952, wherever you want to put it.”
In another CNN segment on Sunday, Enten estimated that Harris was leading with white voters with a college degree by a staggering 18 points. Clinton and Biden only won this demographic by 5 points and 9 points, respectively.
However, the forecaster still said this wasn’t enough for him to make an accurate prediction on who would come out on top in November.
“I make my living on trying to tell folks who’s going to win—and I gotta be honest with you, I haven’t got the faintest clue,” he said.
