CNN data reporter Harry Enten says that one key statistic may spell serious trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign just one month out from the election—so much so that a win would be, in his words, “historically unprecedented.”
In a segment with host John Berman, Enten analyzed the polling data around the question, “Do you think the country is on the right track?” Apparently, just 28 percent of Americans think that the United States is currently headed in the right direction under its Democratic leadership.
Enten said that this a problem for Harris, the party’s nominee, given that, on average, this figure sits at 42 percent in years when the incumbent party wins the presidency and just 25 percent when it loses.
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“This to me is a bad sign for Kamala Harris’s campaign,” he said. “The bottom line is it looks a lot more like a loser than it does like a winner when it comes to the country being on the right track.”
Enten also shared the historical data from specific years, pointing out that the lowest this figure has been in a year that the incumbent party won was 39 percent, when President Bill Clinton won a second term over Republican Bob Dole and Independent Ross Perot in 1996. When Ronald Regan won a blowout in 1984, 47 percent of Americans thought the country was on the right track.
“So there is no historical precedent for the White House party winning another term in the White House… when just 28 percent of the country thinks that we’re on the right track,” Enten said. “Simply put, it would be historically unprecedented.”
Polling data has told a mix of different stories for Harris and her opponent, former President Donald Trump, in recent days. She swept polls on her debate performance versus Trump in early September, seeming to earn a bump for her election chances—especially in crucial swing states Pennsylvania and Michigan.
A poll released in the past several days, however, showed that Trump was doing surprisingly well with Latino voters, a group that has historically leaned solidly Democrat.
Despite his history of racist comments against Latinos, 40 percent said they would vote for the GOP nominee while 54 percent said they would vote for Harris—a 12-year low for Democratic nominees.
Both candidates are feverishly campaigning in battleground states 32 days out from the Nov. 5 general election.
