In the 2022 elections, Democrats had the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade at the center of their campaigns. In the 2024 elections, Democrats have Republicans.
Even though abortion was a potent political issue in the midterm elections, Republicans haven’t shied away from offering legislation to tighten access to abortion. There’s a GOP effort to restrict abortion pills at the national level. And a bill to further limit “taxpayer-funded abortions.” And the national abortion ban that plenty of House Republicans continue to support.
Democrats say the issue is slated to be a centerpiece of their campaign strategy. They think that, after a year of abortion restrictions going into effect—and a term of House Republicans attempting to legislate on the issue—voters in battleground districts might be ready to sway in Democrats’ favor.
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When The Daily Beast interviewed the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA), she was definitive that abortion would be a main driver for Democrats.
“Republican extremism on abortion is going to lose them the House majority in 2024,” she said last week.
“And remember, we we only need five more seats to take back the majority,” DelBene said. “So critical issues like this that are important across the country are going to be critical in many, many races.”
After House Republicans took back the majority in 2022 by only a fraction of the margin predicted by leadership and pollsters, politicos suspected outrage over abortion restrictions was a driving factor. House Democrats say that’s still salient—and that even in states where abortion has remained relatively safe, national attempts to restrict reproductive rights can be an issue.
This week, Democrats will be seeking to beef up their abortion playbook with a vote on the Women’s Health Protection Act. Democrats will be working to get the bill on the floor via a discharge petition: a wonky procedural move that allows the minority to force a vote on a bill if it earns at least 218 petition signatures. That means all 212 Democrats and six Republicans would need to support the petition.
(News of the discharge petition was first reported by Axios, and a spokesperson for Rep. Diana DeGette (D-CO), chair of the Pro-Choice Caucus, confirmed the news to The Daily Beast.)
“That is one place I think that we could show the receipts of what they are doing and show the proof that while we are pushing for a more inclusive agenda, they are doing just the opposite,” said Rep. Norma Torres (D-CA), vice chair of the Pro Choice Caucus.
The Women’s Health Protection Act has been introduced before, and it’s likely to be introduced again next term, seeing as the discharge petition is an uphill battle. (Last term, zero Republicans supported the WHPA in a floor vote.) But Democrats think the discharge petition is a solid way to put House Republicans, specifically those in battleground districts, on the record about abortion.
That’s the sort of ammo Democrats think they can use—and that they’re trying to find more of.
“This is just one of the things in our toolbox for various things that we're going to be doing,” Rep. Judy Chu (D-CA), sponsor of the WHPA, told The Daily Beast, citing a number of other things like roundtables and town halls as ways to amp up pressure on vulnerable Republicans.
Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI), co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, said he thinks the GOP strategy on using abortion to fire up the base could work for some of their members’ re-election efforts, but not all.
“That kind of political strategy is great for the seats they've got, but not necessarily for some that they need to hold and others that they might want to try to pick up,” Pocan said. “And, you know, they're really just appealing again to a fairly narrow segment of their existing base.”
The discharge petition effort will also come the same week as the anniversary of the Dobbs decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which was formally released on June 24, 2022.
But even after a year has gone by, Democrats still feel that abortion holds as much weight as it did in 2022. For many states over the past year, strict abortion bans have gone into place, sometimes limiting the procedure to as little as six weeks or banning it altogether.
Rep. Lois Frankel (D-FL) said abortion restrictions in Florida have proven to be a potent issue with residents, and the potential for Republicans to add more restrictions, especially in states like hers, hits hard. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) signed a six-week ban in April that is working its way through the state Supreme Court.
“If you take a look at the map of the United States now, it is shocking how many states have bans or restrictions. I mean, the whole South was pretty much walled-off. So, I mean, that’s obviously not been enough for Republicans,” Frankel told The Daily Beast.
Other Democrats say there’s been an early promise of abortion continuing to hold weight in 2024 elections. DelBene pointed to Rep. Pat Ryan’s (D-NY) win in a special election last year that was filled with abortion messaging. Pocan pointed toward Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election in May, when voters elected liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz. That surprising outcome flipped the court’s ideological lean ahead of a critical abortion case.
He argued outcomes like that—in a swing state no less—show Republicans are on the wrong political side of the movement.
“They just keep treading into some pretty dangerous waters for them politically,” Pocan said, referring to Republicans. “And I don’t know if there’s enough outspokenness from those who actually understand it’s a problem for them.”
While Republicans still have plenty of efforts moving through their conference, it appears leadership has been grappling with what exactly to put on the floor. Politico reported this month that moderates and members from battleground districts were questioning GOP leadership’s decision-making on the issue, specifically when leadership was set to put a bill on the floor that would further limit taxpayer dollars going toward abortion.
During a recent closed-door meeting, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), an outspoken advocate for Republicans to focus on issues other than abortion, reportedly asked Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) “Why the hell are we doing this?”
But as the past few weeks have proven, McCarthy might not always have the capacity to wrangle his caucus on the issue. A group of conservative hardliners have essentially proven their willingness to shut down the House altogether if they don’t get their way. And there’s a good chance they’d do the same over abortion policy.
Republicans have actually already passed a handful of abortion-related bills this term, including one bill condemning attacks on anti-abortion facilities and another that would require doctors to treat a baby born after a failed abortion attempt. Both were seen as attempts to divide Democrats on the issue of abortion, in ways the GOP could arguably use in its own favor later on. But it’s clear the political ramifications of more restrictions on abortion are harder on Republicans than Democrats.
Abortion legislation in either direction is still considered dead on arrival in the Senate, given the chamber’s 60-vote threshold to break a filibuster.
The National Republican Congressional Committee—the campaign arm for House Republicans—did not respond to a request for comment on how they envision abortion playing out in battleground districts in 2024.
In many ways, the 2024 campaigns are just beginning in earnest. Most Democrats and Republicans don’t know who their opponents will be next cycle, or what issues may arise between now and Election Day. Not to mention the fact that 2024 is a presidential election year, too, meaning many down-ticket candidates are subject to the coattails of their party’s presidential nominees.
But as DelBene puts in, the abortion blame games have already begun.
“We are going to continue to highlight what’s happening,” she said. “We’re going to make sure that folks know where Republicans stand.”
