The Budget Guru
At a time when fixing the deficit without wrecking the economy is Congress' top priority, Democrats may have to tackle the issue next session without their leading legislative mind to help guide the process. John Spratt, chairman of the House Budget Committee, is a 27-year veteran of the House and widely regarded by his peers as one of its most knowledgeable and effective members of all things fiscal. But he's fending off a challenge from Republican State Sen. Mike Mulvaney, and the anti-incumbent environment may be too strong for an entrenched South Carolina lawmaker to survive. Even his opponent acknowledges Spratt's achievements in his campaign, saying in a recent debate that his goal is to be "the kind of Congressman John Spratt was in 1997" when he worked with the GOP to balance the budget.
Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP Photo
The Loyalist
The 2006 and 2008 Democratic romps brought a bevy of conservative Blue Dogs to power in red-leaning districts, giving Speaker Nancy Pelosi endless headaches as many of these members defected on crucial Democratic bills on health care and climate change. Tom Perriello, who only barely defeated Virgil Goode in 2008, was a welcome breath of fresh air in this regard—despite his tough seat, he was unafraid to stand up for progressive values, and quickly became a hero on the left as he cast tough vote after tough vote. Now The Daily Beast's Election Oracle pegs him as a 40-60 underdog in his race against Republican Robert Hurt. Despite the tough environment, Democrats are working hard to pay Perriello back for standing with them on key legislation like health-care reform as the DCCC is pouring cash into the race.
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The Rising Star
Two-term Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords' charisma and compelling biography makes her a natural pick to make the leap to the Senate, the governor's mansion, and maybe beyond. She's a Fulbright scholar, businesswoman, married to an astronaut, and, at 40, has plenty of time to move up the ranks and wait for an opening. But will her career be cut off early in her conservative district by Republican challenger Jess Kelly? Democrats should be wary of Kelly's own star potential as an Iraq veteran with the Marines.
Evan Vucci / AP Photo
Conscience of the Senate
It's been a rough year for Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI). The Democratic senator has watched the Supreme Court and FEC gut the campaign-finance legislation that bears his and John McCain's name, leaving the midterms awash in anonymous special-interest money, and he now faces a difficult reelection race against businessman Ron Johnson, who is a 60-40 favorite to win in our Election Oracle model. Dubbed the "Conscience of the Senate" for his independent streak, and passionate devotion to the public interest, Feingold's progressive résumé may be his undoing in the Year of the Conservative.
Morry Gash / AP Photo
The Veteran
A member of Congress since 1978, Ike Skelton climbed the ranks to become chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. He's considered the leading Democrat on military issues, and losing his knowledge and experience would be a blow as the country fights two wars and reorganizes its forces. Skelton is facing off with Palin-backed Vicky Hartzler and has aggressively touted his military credentials in the veteran-heavy district. Election Oracle puts his reelection chances at 70-30.
Orlin Wagner / AP Photo
The Elder Statesman
As the longest serving current member of the House, John Dingell's experience is irreplaceable. He succeeded his father in his Michigan district in 1955 and the two have held the seat for close to 80 years. A recent poll, however, shows Dingell down four points in his race against cardiologist Rob Steele. Will he be able to end his storied career on his own terms?
Paul Sancya / AP Photo
The First Female President?
Named to Time's 40 Under 40 list this week (along with her opponent, Kristi Noem), Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, 39, occupies South Dakota's lone House seat. In 2008, The New York Times labeled her as top candidate to become the country's first female president, given her impressive speaking style and ability to win over red-state voters . Her family eats, sleeps, and breathes politics—Herseth-Sandlin's father and two grandparents served in South Dakota's state government.
Doug Dreyer / AP Photo
The Green Warrior
Barbara Boxer, serving her third term as California's junior senator, is known as one of the most strident advocates for environmentalism and women's rights. She worked this year on climate-change legislation to compete with the business-favored bill John Kerry, Lindsey Graham, and Joe Lieberman sought to put together. Energy lobbyists are already salivating at the idea of dealing with a Congress without Boxer as the chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee. She faces a well-financed challenge from former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who is riling up the state's Republican base with a conservative platform.
Reed Saxon / AP Photo
Obama's Favorite Republican
No, that R is not a typo. Joseph Cao is a rare Republican whom Democrats might miss—more than they perhaps realize. When he won his overwhelmingly Democratic New Orleans seat over the indicted William Jefferson in 2008, Cao was an instant sensation as a lone bright spot for Republicans in an otherwise awful year. Many saw him as a model for the future, a moderate Republican who could expand the party's reach beyond its conservative base, but the GOP took a rightward turn and Cao developed a reputation as Obama's favorite Republican. The president doesn't seem too broken up over losing Cao as he recently cut an ad for his opponent, Cedric Richmond. But in an age of hyperpartisan warfare, Democrats might find they could use a rare Republican who speaks respectfully of his opponents and who can be held up as an example to incoming Tea Party candidates.
Bill Haber / AP Photo
