On Saturday night, with his heavily armed mercenaries closing in on Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin abruptly announced that he was shutting down his insurrection after a negotiated settlement that would allow him to walk away peacefully.
Just two days later, the Russian authorities leaked word that the agreement was already toast.
President Vladimir Putin appeared to confirm that Prigozhin had no ‘get out of jail free card’ in an address to the nation late on Monday, in which he said that “the organizers of this rebellion” would “be brought to justice.”
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After one of the most extraordinary days in modern Russian history, which saw Prigozhin seize the military’s southern command HQ in Rostov-on-Don before a column of his fighters sped toward Moscow virtually unopposed, it was announced that the former Putin confidant would be granted an amnesty and allowed to head into exile in Belarus.
Prigozhin—who forged his notorious reputation by running the world’s most bloodthirsty mercenary army—laughably said the deal was struck to ensure that no “blood will be shed” even though his men had already shot down several Russian helicopters and a military plane, according to reports from Russian military bloggers and the Ukrainian air force spokesman, killing up to 39 Russians.
No details of the deal struck in talks with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko were announced by media-savvy Prigozhin himself over the weekend. It was reported in the Russian press that the agreement would see his men spared in order to rejoin the fight in Ukraine under contract to the Ministry of Defense and that the Wagner boss would be granted amnesty for his treasonous mutiny and allowed to drive off into the sunset.
On Monday, a new audio recording of Prigozhin was released by his press service saying that Lukashenko had brokered a deal to keep his Wagner Group in business.
He claimed Wagner had been due to get shut down next Saturday. Lukashenko offered to find a way for the legal operation of Wagner to continue, Prigozhin said.
He made no reference to the supposed deal to keep himself or his comrades out of prison.
A few hours earlier, signs first emerged that the deal may not have been struck in good faith. The Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported that the criminal case against Prigozhin had not—in fact—been dropped. The official state news agency, TASS, soon confirmed that the investigation into the mutiny that humiliated Putin was ongoing.
A Prosecutor General’s Office source was quoted as saying: “The criminal case against Prigozhin did not stop. The investigation continues.”
Prigozhin could face 20 years behind bars.
There was a glimmer of hope for Prigozhin on Monday night when Putin said he would keep his word and allow Wagner fighters to go into exile in Belarus. “I promise those of Wagner who want to go to Belarus, I will keep my promise,” he said. But it was far from clear if Prigozhin would be included in the guarantee, as surely Putin is not so weak that he could pretend the Wagner boss was not part of the insurrection leadership.
His location is currently unknown and he has not been seen in public since driving off the Russian military base in a civilian car.
Even loyal Kremlin propagandists had been furious that Putin was apparently going to let Prigozhin get away with turning on his own military and exposing the weakness of the Kremlin. The Daily Beast reported that the flagship propaganda show Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovyov was brimming with disgust for such an act of presidential leniency.
“I am firmly convinced that during wartime, traitors have to be destroyed! Today, no matter who says what, whatever fairy tales they are telling, a bullet to the forehead is the sole salvation for Prigozhin,” said State Duma deputy Andrey Gurulyov, a retired army officer. “Treason cannot be forgiven under any circumstances!”
Letting Prigozhin get away with such a fundamental criminal act was all the more baffling since Putin had personally given a commitment to strike back forcefully in an address to the nation on Saturday morning. “Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will be punished inevitably. They will answer before the law and our people,” he said. “Our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal.”
There was widespread confusion on Saturday night about why it had been Lukashenko who negotiated the climbdown with Prigozhin. It was seen as a yet another sign of Putin’s weakness that he could not deal with his former contract caterer himself.
Perhaps it would make more sense for Putin to outsource the negotiations if he never intended to stick to the agreement, although such a slippery and duplicitous approach would do little to repair the Russian leader’s faltering reputation as a strong man, which suffered a decisive blow this weekend.
