Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) pledged nearly a year ago that he “will not write off rural America.” But that feeling hasn’t been totally mutual.
After sweeping rural regions largely ignored Democrats for decades, Sanders intended to expand his 2016 blueprint to newer, untapped areas in 2020. Strong showings in the first two early contents made the prospect of that happening more likely. Three weeks later, 14 states would vote, and winning Minnesota, Oklahoma, and his neighboring state of Maine for the second time was almost expected.
By Super Tuesday, he lost all three to Joe Biden.
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“The Democratic primary electorate has become less liberal since 2016, not more,” Dave Wasserman, an elections analyst, told The Daily Beast, speaking about a number of the former vice president’s victories over Sanders. Put bluntly: “Bernie’s coalition has shrunk.”
But moderate ideology—which, in part, drove Democratic Party heavyweights to coalesce around Biden after his sweeping South Carolina victory—is just one aspect of it. Sanders’ underperformance in rural communities, with large concentrations of white, working-class voters, had been building during the course of the primary, with Iowa and New Hampshire providing early indicators of a downtick in support that contributed to key losses on Super Tuesday, state and national political analysts said.
Sanders lost the Iowa caucuses by a hair to former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Having won the political nervous system of the state, Polk County, which is home to Des Moines, Sanders did well in several urban areas. But in many of the non-urban areas he won last election, he faltered this time around.
Cedar County was one of those regions. In 2016, the senator won the 18,500-person county by 11 points over Clinton. By 2020, it swung for Buttigieg by just a few points. Similar losses were replicated in county after county, with the millennial mayor picking up Sanders strongholds, often citing a “real crisis” in rural America while on the trail.
But it wasn’t just Buttigieg. While Biden came in a dismal fourth place finish in Iowa, he managed to capture certain areas from Sanders that provided a glimpse into the former VP’s potential for success elsewhere. In Clay County, situated in the northwestern region of the state, Biden won over Sanders by over seven points, chipping away another win that he narrowly scored over Clinton.
Similar challenges surfaced in New Hampshire a week later. While Sanders won his neighboring state over Buttigieg—and came in significantly better than Biden’s fifth place finish—both Democrats also showed strength in previous Sanders strongholds. After winning 60 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 38 percent in the primary four years ago, Sanders was poised for a second win; by mid-February this year, he had edged one out. But his margins were narrowed by Buttigieg, who, like in Iowa, overtook him in several rural areas of the state.
In Carroll County, the third least populous county in New Hampshire, Sanders won overwhelmingly against Clinton, coming in 27 points ahead of her at the time. Four years later, he lost the region to Buttigieg by just 2 percent.
“Comparing two-way results with a three or four or five-way result, almost anyone would drop,” Charlie Cook, editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, cautioned, adding that Clinton’s sheer presence in the race helped Sanders considerably last time around. “Hillary Clinton, to a lot of people in small town rural white [areas], it’s like fingernails on a chalkboard.”
Early in the primary, Democratic voters had plenty of options. Sanders had competition from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in liberal bastions, while Buttigieg and Biden both appealed to older voters, a group Sanders has long struggled with. And then there was the momentum factor.
While Sanders got a boost after winning New Hampshire and Nevada, due to an outpouring of support from Latino voters in the latter, Sanders’ drubbing by Biden in South Carolina, which has a large population of African-American voters, set off a catalytic effect through Super Tuesday, including in less diverse areas.
Biden “prevailed with working-class whites in several states” Wasserman said about March 3, including “in many of the rural counties where Sanders had done well in 2016.”
On Tuesday, Minnesota was an unexpected blow. Having campaigned heavily there just before the primary, some Democrats in the state expected Sanders to win major metropolitan areas, but to lose rural areas to Sen. Amy Klobuchar in her home state. In 2016, when the state held a caucus before changing to a primary, Sanders won both rural and urban areas over Clinton, culminating in a landslide victory.
Aided by Klobuchar’s endorsement after ending her campaign the day before voting, Minnesota went for Biden. The former vice president won the northernmost and southern part of the state, both of which Sanders won in 2016. He only spent $6,000 on TV, radio, and digital advertising, compared to Sanders’ $255,000.
And then came Oklahoma.
“The Sanders campaign wasn’t as much as a presence here as it was in 2016,” said Tyler Johnson, an Oklahoma University political science associate professor who analyses elections. “He put in more effort last time around.”
Tyler estimated that similar factors as in Minnesota contributed to Sanders’ downturn in support in Oklahoma, citing the “surprisingly competitive” nature of the race. Like in other traditionally Republican states, last election Clinton made essentially no effort to woo voters in Oklahoma, giving Sanders an automatic advantage. But that perceived edge this time around was eclipsed by Biden, who won by double digits despite never visiting the state during the primary.
The former vice president’s win was largely momentum-based, rather than anything specific he did to out-campaign Sanders, Tyler said. “It’s another example of riding that momentum and getting a lot out of minimum investment,” he said.
Nearly 2,000 miles away in Maine, Sanders’ prior win positioned him to add another victory to his New England successes. But despite his overwhelming support in liberal areas like Portland and Westbrook, Biden narrowly beat him out of a second victory, despite spending a mere $2,200 to Sanders’ $94,000 on advertising.
“Bernie in Maine has a dedicated and loyal and engaged following,” said David Farmer, a political consultant for Bernstein Shur Group, based in Portland. “They were able to dominate the caucus process four years ago. It evened the playing field when we switched to the primary.”
That trio of states that Sanders lost to Biden—Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Maine—all changed from caucuses, which tend to favor activist-driven candidates, to primaries. In Maine, like Minnesota and Oklahoma, strategists said he also suffered from the nationalized nature of the race after Biden’s blowout victory in South Carolina.
“Bernie was active here,” Farmer said. “Vice President Biden didn’t have a whole lot of operations here, hadn’t spent a lot of time here, and hadn’t spent a lot of money,” he added, “but when that motion happened, it just all went towards Biden.”
