Donald Trump could “make history” by winning the popular vote on Nov. 5, CNN data reporter Harry Enten said, noting that the major national polls have the race in a dead heat.
On a CNN election polling segment, Enten discussed the candidates’ chances, as both Trump and Kamala Harris feverishly campaign to win over swing-state voters in the run-up to the election.
“Everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the electoral college but Kamala Harris may win the popular vote,” Enten told host John Berman. “But Trump may finally get his great white whale.”
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In both of the last two presidential elections—even when Trump won the presidency in 2016—he won fewer voters nationwide than his Democratic opponent. In fact, no Republican has won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, and before that, the last was his father, George H.W. Bush, in 1988.
This year, though, Trump could have a shot, Enten said, referencing the fact that all major national polls have the race within three points.
The latest Wall Street Journal national poll, which polls just registered voters, gives Trump a two-point edge, while recent likely-voter polls from Reuters and USA Today slightly favored Harris.
A New York Times national poll published today, the last before the general election, had the race for the popular vote split exactly down the middle.
“The fact that Donald Trump has a legitimate shot of winning the popular vote is something I think a lot of folks, including in my line of work, really didn’t think could possibly happen when Donald Trump was running last time around,” Enten said. “He could make history not just for Donald Trump, but for a Republican candidate as well.”
But Enten’s analysis wasn’t just doom and gloom for Democrats. He said that a closer inspection of why Trump is doing well in national polls undercuts how much it actually means for his chances to win the electoral college.
“You can dig down into the state level polling and you can see that Donald Trump is doing particularly well in California, Florida, New York and Texas,” he said. “Of course, none of these states are really on the board at this point. So Donald Trump may end up gaining in the national popular vote polls, but actually he’s wasting votes which could, in fact, lead to a case where Kamala Harris could sneak by in the electoral college by sweeping those Great Lake battleground states, which at this point, are way too close to call.”
After Trump lost the popular vote by two points to Hillary Clinton in 2016, even though he won the election, he baselessly alleged that the result was due to election fraud. He has yet to admit that he lost the 2020 election, when Joe Biden won the electoral college and the popular vote by over four points.
