Inside the Mind of an Assassin: Trump Gunman Fits Secret Service Patterns

The Secret Service didn’t know about Thomas Matthew Crooks in advance–but he matches with uncanny accuracy the profiles of more than 80 people who have tried to kill presidents since 1949.

The agency knows the common traits of assassins and what it calls “near-lethal approachers”: they are overwhelmingly young and educated white men with no criminal records, a history of mental illness, and experience with weapons.

Thomas Matthew Crooks also fits another part of the assassin profile: he is already being identified with three names, resonating with killers across history like Lee Harvey Oswald, John Wilkes Booth and James Earl Ray. Assassins, or wannabes, get the three-name treatment almost immediately.

Across American history, assassins have killed four of the 46 men who have served as president and wounded three more.

Given the public fascination about assassins—and their impact on history—what do we really know about them and their patterns? Despite thousands of books, articles and movies, the answer was surprisingly little, until the Secret Service commissioned “The Exceptional Case Study Project,” a study of 83 assassins, attackers and “near-lethal approachers” involving 74 incidents since 1949.

“There are no accurate descriptive or psychological profiles of assassins,” Robert Fein and Bryan Vossekuil concluded in their groundbreaking study in 1999.

While assassins share similar traits, they concluded, there are exceptions to almost every pattern. The data shows, for instance, that 86 percent are male, 77 percent white, 51 percent single, 61 percent no children, 58 percent never served in the military, and 52 percent are unemployed.

Even with a wide range of profiles, they wrote “in every case, the attack or near-attack was the end result of an understandable, and often discernible, process of thinking and action.”

While political ideology is a significant motivator in history, it is not the sole driver, according to Secret Service data. Personal grievances, desire for fame, and feelings of powerlessness also play substantial roles. The Secret Service data highlights how many attackers are motivated by a combination of factors like the wish for notoriety, revenge, and hoping to be killed.

“In more than 40% of the incidents, an idiosyncratic belief, such as a wish to save the world, the desire to bring attention to a perceived wrong, or a longing to achieve a special relationship with the target, appeared to be the subject’s motive,” the researchers wrote.

While Crooks’ exact motive still remains unknown, investigators have already identified enough about him to show that he possesses at least seven traits common to history’s assassins.

Age

Crooks is 20. Three of the four previous killers of US presidents were in their 20s. Stage actor John Wilkes Booth was 27 when he shot President Abraham Lincoln at Ford’s Theatre in 1865. Anarchist Leon Czolgosz was 28 when he killed President William McKinley in Buffalo in 1901. And U.S. Marine veteran Lee Harvey Oswald was 24 when he murdered President John F. Kennedy in Dallas in 1963. In the Secret Service study, the ages of presidential assailants ranged widely from 16 to 73. The average was 35.

Education

Crooks graduated from Bethel Park High School in 2022 and the Community College of Allegheny County in 2024 with an associates degree in engineering. Crooks was planning to continue his education at nearby Robert Morris University, according to Reuters. It turns out that many presidential attackers are educated. Some 31 percent graduated from high school or technical school and 46 percent attended or graduated college.

Personality

Reports differ about Crooks’ personality. Some friends describe him as shy, friendly and pleasant. Others suggest that he was a loner who sat by himself at lunchtime and was bullied in school. His senior yearbook had no photograph of him and he was listed as “not pictured.” Across history, many presidential assailants were so-called “social isolates” but, interestingly, a third were not.

Criminal History

Crooks had no criminal history. Indeed, few presidential assailants had prior arrests or incarceration.

Gun Knowledge

Crooks had been a “comically bad shot” with a rifle, according to a classmate. He failed to make his high school shooting team, but he did know how to fire a weapon and belonged to a local gun club called the Clairton Sportsman’s Club. This is consistent with the Secret Service data. Most assailants had used weapons but few had formal training.

Mental Illness

Crooks reportedly looked up “major depressive disorder” on his phone. Across history, many assailants had histories of serious depression and despair. Many are known to have tried to kill themselves before the incident. Some 60 percent had been in contact with mental health professionals in their lives–but fewer than a quarter had contact in the year before the assassination attempt. “In fewer than half of all incidents, the subject was delusional at the time of their attack or near-lethal approach,” the researchers said. Few had histories of drug or alcohol abuse.

Planning

Crooks is reported to have carefully planned his attack with at least one visit to the Butler rally site ahead of the shooting. He is said to have looked up photos of Joe Biden, Donald Trump and other famous people including the British royal family He also bought a five-foot ladder at Home Depot, 50 rounds of ammunition and made three homemade bombs. A remote detonator was found at his side after he was killed. This kind of preparation is consistent across history. According to the Secret Service data, 80 percent of assailants engaged in planning. Only one attacker was known to have not planned the attack.

While Crooks reflects many of the shared traits of assassins, he differs from other patterns identified by the Secret Service.

Ideology

Most assailants had interest in militant and radical ideas but were not members of any organizations. Crooks was a registered Republican in Allegheny County who reportedly espoused conservative views in history class and Trump yard signs were displayed in front of his home. At the same time, Federal Election Commission records show that he donated $15 to a Democratic organization. Crooks’ browsing history so far has failed to reveal an ideological motive.

Job

Crooks worked as a dietary aide at a Genesis HealthCare nursing home near his family’s home. In contrast around 35 percent of assailants were employed at the time of the incident.

Family

Crooks lived in a one-story brick ranch-style house with his parents in Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, a middle class suburb of Pittsburgh. Across history, most attackers and near-attackers had histories of mobility and transience.

Harassment History

Many presidential assailants had a history of harassing other people. Most had histories of angry and explosive behavior, but only half had shown actual signs of violence. So far no reports have surfaced of Crooks harassing other people.

Religion

Around 10-11 percent of presidential assailants identified as religious or members of a religious community. Crooks’ extended family is Catholic but his own religious affiliation is not known.

The investigation into Crooks is ongoing. The FBI says it has conducted around 100 interviews of law enforcement personnel, Trump rally attendees, and other witnesses. It says it has also received hundreds of digital media tips including photos and videos.

The FBI encourages anyone with information to submit it online at tips.fbi.gov or call 1-800-CALL-FBI.