Failed pollster Ann Selzer has claimed that her outlier poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a surprise three-point lead over Donald Trump going into Election Day might have actually helped Trump win.
Seltzer vowed to continuing reviewing her data to understand how she missed the mark by so much in a a Thursday column for the Des Moines Register.
And while some Trumpers initially claimed that Selzer had somehow “manipulated” the data to put Harris in the lead, Selzer said the response to her prediction might have galvanized more people to turnout.
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“I told more than one news outlet that the findings from this last poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory,” she wrote. “Maybe that’s what happened.”
No one truly will know what exactly happened, added Selzer, but she took her “best shot.”
“My philosophy in public opinion research is to take my best shot at revealing the truth of a future event, in this case Election Day,” said Selzer. “Without fear or favor, we used the same method as the final poll this year to show a healthy Trump lead in both 2020 and 2016. Those turned out to capture the mood of the electorate reasonably well, though both took fire from Iowans who doubted the findings could be true.”
Selzer was one of many pollsters proven wrong on Election Day after Trump took a sweeping lead over Harris to return to the White House, winning traditionally deep-red states and several swing states. Election “Nostradamus” Allan Lichtman’s “13 keys” prediction was proven wrong. And data guru Nate Silver gave up on his own data midway through vote being counting on Tuesday night.
After initially calling Selzer one of his “enemies” over projection, Trump came out on top in Iowa anyway, winning the state, for a third time, by around 55.8%, according to NBC News.
“A few months ago, one woman still making up her mind said something that has stuck with me,” recounted Selzer. “Trump disgusted her, but Harris scared her. I doubt I can find data that can reveal how common these thoughts were.”
