The Oscars race has increasingly become a referendum on our national mood and culture. This year, that mood seems to be: chaos and anger.
The entire awards season has been mired with as much drama behind-the-scenes at the Academy—Best Popular Film! Kevin Hart!—as there has been on screen in this year’s Oscar frontrunners. And those frontrunners have courted even more controversy than we’ve been conditioned to expect from the reliably contentious campaign trail.
Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, and Vice have all weathered significant amounts of backlash and outrage—and yet all still stand to rake in loads of mentions when the 2019 Oscar nominations are announced Tuesday morning.
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In advance of the announcement, we’ve flagged five major talking points to look out for, and included our final predictions for the biggest categories.
Which blockbusters will get into Best Picture?
Black Panther is looking like a lock for Best Picture, which would make it the first superhero movie to get the big nod, and Bohemian Rhapsody somehow seems certain now, too, despite critical backlash, factual inaccuracies, and the fact that its director was fired from set mid-production and is currently the subject of alleged sexual assault accusations. But if the Academy goes for nine or 10 nominees, that makes room one or more of Mary Poppins Returns, Crazy Rich Asians, and A Quiet Place to join them. All three are still dark horse contenders, but close enough in the race that it could happen.
In a year when the Academy floated the idea of a Best Popular Movie out of an insecurity that its nominees weren’t mainstream enough, that this many blockbusters are in the race—and that A Star Is Born, which has grossed over $400 million, is the Best Picture frontrunner—is deliciously ironic.
What will happen with If Beale Street Could Talk?
The film from former Best Picture winner Barry Jenkins, the director of Moonlight, and adapted from James Baldwin’s seminal novel seemed a surefire bet for awards attention, especially once critics swooned over the finished product. No precursor awards voters have perfect overlap with the Academy, and therefore they’re wonky bellwethers for how the Academy might vote. But the fact that Beale Street has had such a bumpy track record with the guilds leading up to Oscars nominations morning suggests it could be in jeopardy of not getting the major nods it was originally pegged for, including Best Picture, Best Director for Jenkins, and even Best Supporting Actress for Regina King.
At one point King was considered the woman to beat in Best Supporting Actress, but she was confusingly snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild. If she does get nominated for the Oscar, history is against her: It’s been 18 years since there has been an acting winner who wasn’t nominated for a SAG, when Marcia Gay Harden did it for Pollock in 2001.
How much—or, more likely, how little—will the Green Book controversies affect its chances?
The Green Book’s award-season journey has both been extremely fraught and somehow also smooth sailing. The anodyne historical race dramedy has been the subject of an avalanche of controversies: comments made by its star, accusations of factual inaccuracies, its subject’s family disowning it, racist tweets from its screenwriter, and stories of inappropriate behavior by its director. All of that, and there’s the thing where critics didn’t very much like it and audiences haven’t even seen it; its current $42 million gross is way under studio expectations. Yet despite all of this, the movie has cleaned up at every precursor award ceremony, untarnished by the controversies. We predict the same will happen Tuesday morning.
Will Spike Lee be redeemed?
It’s maybe the most notorious misstep in Academy Awards history: in 1990, the year Driving Miss Daisy, of all movies, won Best Picture, Spike Lee’s masterpiece directorial coming out, Do the Right Thing, wasn’t even nominated. Lee had to settle for just a Best Screenplay nod, and over the course of his storied career has only been nominated once more, for Best Documentary in 1998. An honorary Oscar three years ago was the Academy’s first olive branch, but there’d be no better apology than giving Lee his first Best Picture and Best Director nominations for BlacKkKlansman—something that’s starting to look very likely.
Which indie auteurs will break into screenplay races?
The Best Director race has been depressingly monolithic throughout the season, which means the work of filmmakers behind some of the best independent films of the year—Chloe Zhao (The Rider), Debra Granik (Leave No Trace), Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade), Tamara Jenkins (Private Life), Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here), Paul Schrader (First Reformed), Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)—haven’t gotten their due recognition in that category. (Note that five of those directors are women, by the way.) With the exception of Heller, each of those directors is credited with writing or co-writing the scripts for their films and are vying for mentions in the just-as-stacked screenplay categories. If any of them get in, it would be a welcome surprise and deserved acknowledgement for both feats.
Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Green Book
The Favourite
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
If 10 nominees: If Beale Street Could Talk, A Quiet Place
Best Director
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
Peter Farrelly - Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Best Actor
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman- The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell - Vice
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Best Foreign Film
Burning
Capernaum
Cold War
Roma
Shoplifters
Best Documentary
Free Solo
RBG
Minding the Gap
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Best Animated Feature
The Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Original Score
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Best Original Song
“All the Stars” - Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” - Dumplin’
“I’ll Fight” - RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” - Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow” - A Star Is Born
