FiveThirtyEight has banned any polls coming from former polling firm executive director Sean McElwee after an investigation brought to light that he’d bet on elections. The data news site, whose polling aggregate is one of the most high-profile during election cycles, likened election betting to insider trading given polls can influence political markets and they could potentially be manipulated by those with a financial interest in them. McElwee, who was not found to have manipulated any poll data, was recently ousted from his role as executive director of polling firm Data For Progress, after his gambling efforts surfaced, including placing $20,000 on the 2020 presidential election. Although polls conducted by McElwee will be banned going forward, FiveThirtyEight will keep Data For Progress in its system since they’ve cut ties with McElwee. Although in 2020 Data For Progress routinely overestimated Democrats in polls, the pollster’s 2022 polls overshot Republican chances in every battleground state—except Florida, where both Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio shot well past most polling expectations.
