As the field of GOP presidential candidates grows, while struggling to gain ground on Donald Trump, Republicans and Democrats have increasingly noticed that one of the figures best-positioned to take on the former president remains on the sidelines.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, one of the only high-profile Republicans to have ever come out stronger from a battle with Trump, has conspicuously stiff-armed buzz about his own presidential prospects.
But insiders have noted Kemp’s gradual cracking of the door as the presidential Trump challengers have foundered.
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In recent interviews, Kemp has publicly not ruled out a run for president, and plugged-in Republicans say that he hasn’t taken the option off the table.
“He hasn’t closed the door,” said a Republican strategist. “I don’t think there’s a huge desire to do what [other 2024 candidates] are doing right now.”
If Trump’s support remains soft—but top rivals like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) don’t gain traction—it’s widely expected that Kemp’s phone will blow up with pleading messages from GOP donors and bigwigs to consider a late entry.
Some Republicans, even those who are Kemp fans, don’t really believe the hype. In Georgia, Kemp’s aw-shucks, risk-averse style has played well—but might work better in theory than in practice when it comes to the rigors of the presidential campaign trail, where every word or misstep is dissected on national television.
“The symbol of hope is the backup quarterback,” quipped a Georgia political observer. “You put him in and realize why the starter is the starter.”
There are plenty of other barriers to a late Kemp run, too. Barring a major Trump or DeSantis collapse, it would be near-impossible for him to build a campaign organization, and raise the money, needed to run a winning campaign.
A source close to Kemp told The Daily Beast that the governor is highly unlikely to join the 2024 primary barring a huge shift in the race, and added that his desire not to dilute the non-Trump field was a major factor behind his decision not to run earlier.
Perhaps ironically, however, some Democrats see Kemp as the strongest Republican not in the running.
“I do think he is the one person on the GOP bench that can make a legitimate play for the nomination, authentically make a play, in a way no one else can,” one Democratic official told The Daily Beast.
In fact, Democrats take Kemp’s presidential ambitions seriously enough that they have started monitoring and building research on the governor, not just for 2024 but for a potential future run, according to the Democratic official.
One of the reasons the presidential speculation about Kemp continues to swirl—besides his less than Shermanesque declarations about running—is that many GOP bigwigs believe Trump may have a real problem.
If the federal indictment of Trump over his mishandling of classified documents moves through court quickly, Trump could be barred from running. And if DeSantis and other Republicans aren’t picking up traction, many political analysts think a new entrant could shake up the race and coalesce support.
After sustaining months of attacks from Trump over his refusal to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia, Kemp notched a resounding re-election win in 2022, dispatching Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams and outright embarrassing the Trump-backed David Perdue in a primary.
Of course, Kemp staying open to a run preserves his strategic options for 2024 and beyond. He just launched a federal PAC to boost his profile, for instance, and the presidential speculation could help fill its coffers—helpful if Kemp decides to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in 2026, as many believe he might.
Beyond that, the buzz contributes to Kemp’s already strong positioning as a top-tier vice presidential pick for any of the non-Trump candidates. Indeed, many Georgia insiders believe that landing on the ticket is Kemp’s real play.
“Whispers about him as a potential candidate are mainly on the vice presidential ticket with Ron DeSantis,” said Jason Shepherd, a prominent Georgia GOP activist who has a volunteer leadership role with the DeSantis campaign there.
“All along, we’ve taken his moves to be he’s positioning himself as a VP candidate if Trump doesn’t get the nomination,” said a senior Georgia Democrat. “I do think he holds out until the end to stop Trump and uses that to fuel his own name into immediate VP contention.”
Ultimately, though, the real reason Kemp is stoking presidential speculation might be the most obvious one: He likely wants to run for the job someday.
What everyone agrees on is that, for a seemingly unassuming guy from north Georgia, Kemp is as shrewd and calculating a politician operating today. When he began his statewide career as Secretary of State, few expected him to twice defeat the Democrats’ generational talent, Abrams, and command the governor’s office as he has.
Having survived Trump’s onslaught while maintaining his conservative credibility and appeal with independents, Kemp might have more future potential at this juncture than anyone else in today’s GOP, a party filled with also-rans or ambitious younger politicians beholden to Trump.
No matter how he plays his unusually fortuitous hand as well as possible, Kemp is certain to have influence on the course of the 2024 primary. Generally, GOP insiders expect Kemp to use his political capital to thwart Trump from getting the nomination and help steer the party into a new era.
A spokesman for Kemp declined to comment for this story.
Which non-Trump candidate the governor might back is a murkier question. Kemp is not especially close to any one of them, but maintains good ties with virtually all of them. Several current candidates came to stump for his 2022 re-election, like former Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, and former Gov. Nikki Haley.
Speaking to the Wall Street Journal this spring, Kemp name-checked all those contenders, and said he has a “great relationship” with Pence and “a really good relationship with DeSantis.”
Those relationships will be on display in August, when Kemp and Georgia conservative pundit Erick Erickson host the 2024 primary field in Atlanta for a candidate forum. Every major candidate save for Trump was invited, said Kemp’s camp, and most are expected to attend and give remarks.
Ultimately, Kemp could credibly go to bat for whichever one of them gets within striking distance of Trump. Georgia’s place on the primary calendar—a week after Super Tuesday—means that a Kemp endorsement could push them toward a critical victory in the delegate-rich state.
“What would be powerful is, if he goes to work for someone, if he leans in to try and deliver Georgia,” said a Republican strategist. “Whenever he does it, it’ll be calculated for maximum impact, if he’s not getting in the race himself.”
The governor’s ties with the GOP field, of course, have been closely parsed for clues as to his vice presidential prospects. If nothing else, Kemp’s popularity in the battleground state with the closest margin in the 2020 election would make him an appealing choice for any candidate.
“Brian Kemp should be at the top of the shortlist really for any of them,” Shepherd said.
For DeSantis in particular—whose struggles with retail politics have been apparent to 2024 observers—the affable but battle-tested governor could be a very smart choice.
“Kemp could be a real everyman, all-American boy asset to someone like DeSantis because he excels at interpersonal politics,” said Brian Robinson, a veteran Georgia Republican operative. “A non-Trump candidate would be crazy to not publicly float him on their list.”
There is also considerable cross-pollination between their political circles, which adds to the VP intrigue. Kemp’s top communications aide for years, Cody Hall, is now in private consulting and is advising the DeSantis campaign.
That web of interconnection is one of the reasons why a only serious shake-up of the current field would open up space for Kemp. But the fact that the governor hasn’t ruled out a run means that he and his team do see a potential path—even if it’s an unlikely one.
According to several GOP and Democratic sources, the sequence of events goes something like this: one or both of the current front-runners, Trump or DeSantis, crashes in some significant or dramatic way.
For Trump, perhaps that comes in the form of his current legal turmoil. For DeSantis, his well-funded and well-staffed apparatus might not be enough to prop up a candidate many Republicans worry is not ready for prime time, and he flames out well ahead of schedule.
Of course, this is the exact scenario that the rest of the field is also hoping will happen. GOP power brokers and donors would have to be convinced that none of them could take on the remaining front-runner and start some type of movement to coax Kemp into the race.
It’s an unlikely scenario, but given the volatility of today’s politics, it’s likely enough for Kemp to want to keep his options open. Given that many Republicans with less stature than Kemp are doing the same—or are running for president themselves—few people begrudge the Georgia governor his flirtation with the White House.
“To have weathered the Trump storm, to have the potential to be president or vice president or go to the Senate,” asked the senior Georgia Democrat, “why shouldn’t he play in the pool?”
