At the first GOP presidential debate, it was a steady show from every candidate that produced likewise steady poll numbers in the weeks following.
But with every participant in Wednesday night’s second GOP debate trailing Donald Trump by at least 30 points, when the candidates take the stage in front of the Reagan Library’s retired Air Force One plane, all of them will be looking to create a little more turbulence this time around.
Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley head into Wednesday night’s debate in an even battle for the hearts and minds of anti-Trump donors as the most viable MAGA alternative. For everyone else—with the slight exception of Vivek Ramswamy, who cashed in his novelty tokens the first time around—it will be a fight for survival.
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And that is perhaps the most true for DeSantis.
“He needs to get his shit together,” a source close to the DeSantis campaign in New Hampshire told The Daily Beast, lamenting that the candidate hasn’t been back to the state in nearly two months and is in desperate need of a shift in momentum.
“It’s almost beyond repair. Almost,” a source close to a non-Trump rival campaign said of DeSantis. “He’s gotta figure out who he is in this race. He’s no longer the co-frontrunner. He’s no longer the guy every donor is fawning over. He’s none of those things. So if he’s going to try to be the social conservative and culture warrior that he was trying to become to get to Trump’s right in Iowa like Ted Cruz did, then he’s gotta own that.”
Despite widespread expectations that DeSantis would take the bulk of the incoming attacks at the first debate, the focus ended up shifting almost entirely to candidates taking potshots at Ramaswamy.
If the Florida governor ends up stuck in that contest with everyone else, it might finally reveal something about who he really is under his highly insular and stage-managed campaign.
“Debates show either who you are, or who you’re comfortable pretending to be,” the rival campaign source said. “And Ron DeSantis doesn’t seem to be comfortable as either one of those things.”
DeSantis’ own operation realizes how critical this debate will be for him to reclaim his status as the most viable Trump alternative.
“He needs to take charge of the debate,” the pro-DeSantis Republican said. “He doesn’t need to get into a pissing contest with anybody, but he needs to get his point across. He knows how to get his point across without acting like a Vivek batshit-crazy person.”
Meanwhile, as DeSantis’ operation sweats what could be a pivotal moment in the campaign for the Florida governor, Ramaswamy’s team is once again projecting confidence.
A source close to the Ramaswamy campaign said the biopharmaceutical entrepreneur had planned on getting a surfing session in on Tuesday night in preparation for the debate—much like how Ramaswamy advertised last time that his debate prep consisted of playing tennis—but his flight arrived too late to make it happen.
With donors on the sidelines and sagging poll numbers, DeSantis has to prove he can stick around, the New Hampshire Republican said. And that means addressing what Fox News moderator Bret Baier called “the elephant not in the room” at the first contest in Milwaukee.
“Basically,” the DeSantis source said, “he has to be not afraid to engage on the subject of Donald Trump.”
Among GOP elites, Wednesday night is shaping up to become the Florida governor’s last, best chance to stop the bleeding.
“How can he survive? It seems like the longer he stays in, the worse he looks,” an RNC member involved with debate planning told The Daily Beast. “I mean, I gotta believe that he’s a smart man and that his heart is probably in the right place, but he appears not to have a heart, which is a bit of a problem. And you can’t send your wife out there to be your heart.”
What DeSantis needs, the RNC member said, is a direct-to-camera moment where he can make a connection with voters who have soured on him.
“He has to seem like he cares,” the Republican said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about the night, for which they are not approved to speak to the press. “I’ve had calls from people this week where they say he seems like he doesn’t really care about people.”
The second debate of the primary so far, once again without the former president, might have higher stakes for the other candidates on stage who will be desperate to make the cut for future ones. But with DeSantis falling out of the top two in New Hampshire and South Carolina—and, crucially, falling further out of Trump’s focus as a threat—the Florida governor’s first order of business is stopping an ascendant Haley.
Enjoying her biggest surge in the polls thus far after the first debate in August, Haley is also starting to earn the enduring sign of clout in a modern GOP primary: a Trump nickname.
While the Trump campaign might not be dusting off their playbook on how to bury the former U.N. ambassador just yet, he’s at least bestowed upon her the new moniker of “Nikki ‘Birdbrain’ Haley” in a Truth Social post just past midnight on Monday.
To cut any Haley momentum out from under her, a Republican strategist said her support for backing Ukraine against Russia’s invasion will likely be the easiest target for her GOP rivals.
“I think the big thing is gonna be that she’s supporting a lot of the endless war in Ukraine funding stuff, which is not at all popular with the Republican base,” the strategist said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about the race and the increasingly thorny topic of Ukraine funding. “Sending money over there is not a popular issue, so I think her very neocon type positions that make her vulnerable is somewhere you’ll see people like Vivek go after her.”
Haley is currently polling the best out of anyone in the field when it comes to one-on-one polling against President Joe Biden, where she’s been able to hold a lead. Trump, meanwhile, has been closer to a dead heat with Biden.
Another factor that could play in Haley’s favor, the RNC member involved with the debate planning said, is that tickets at the Reagan Library have been a much hotter sell than for the opening night in Milwaukee. A smaller and less boisterous crowd could tilt the atmosphere in her favor if things get heated on issues like Ukraine aid.
“They set more parameters than anybody else, but it’s out of respect and stewardship for what they’re running there,” the RNC member said of the venue. “Other places would probably let a few more people in, but they don’t want it to be too crowded and they want it to be a good experience for everybody. So it’s a little more elite.”
However rarified the air might be among the GOP bigwigs who scored a ticket for the big night in California, Trump’s massive lead and the third debate not coming until Nov. 8 poses a different problem.
Will anyone do something to make the debates relevant, or is it diminishing returns from here on out?
“I don’t think it’s diminishing returns because Trump’s not showing up,” the RNC member said, “but if they’re not gaining anything, it’s gonna become a little pointless.”
Pressure will mount on candidates to drop out if they can’t qualify for the next one, a dynamic intensified by the desire among Never Trump Republicans to coalesce behind an alternative before it’s too late.
For Haley, it will be her best chance at winning over DeSantis donors who have stayed on the sidelines, the GOP strategist explained.
“You have the Vivek lane that’s like the 8 to 12 percent lane. Then the Ron lane, which is like 10 to 20 percent. So for her, I think she needs to show she can be a strong alternative to both of them, and someone who can stick around and mount a lasting challenge to Trump,” the strategist said. “And then after the debate, can she get those DeSantis donors to come over to her as a potential alternative to Trump?”
While it may be Haley taking the mantle of the best hope for Republicans desperate to move on from Trump, somebody, at some point, needs to do something to make the 2024 primary a real contest again.
“If we want the Republican Party to continue,” the RNC member said, “it cannot continue to be the party of Trump.”
If nobody creates a breakout moment, the chances of future debates making any difference will continue to fade, the Republican said, hoping more undecided voters tune in.
“Everybody there is superior to Trump, to me, and I think we need to give the American people enough decent choices that they start paying attention,” this Republican said.
