Vice President Kamala Harris is now the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, according to several online betting markets.
Bet365, an online sports book based in the UK, announced on Monday that Harris had pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump for the first time since President Joe Biden suspended his reelection campaign.
According to the company, Trump’s lead began slipping after his controversial interview at the National Association of Black Journalists conference in July, where he openly questioned Harris’ racial identity. Bet365 put Harris’ odds at 11-8 before the conference, but she has since reduced that difference to just 4-5.
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“Having been a comfortable favourite a few weeks ago when Joe Biden looked increasingly unsuitable for office, the Trump campaign now seems to be spiraling,” Bet365 wrote in a press release chronicling the development.
Trump’s odds of winning remain even, the company added.
Harris has also enjoyed a widening lead in many of the major online predictive markets.
As of Monday evening, Harris was ahead of Trump by five points on Polymarket. The company, which bills itself as the largest prediction market in the world, saw a record number of bets placed on the 2024 election over the course of July, Bloomberg reported. More than $577 million has been staked on the 2024 election, as of August 12.
In June, Trump had a comfortable lead over his Democratic rival, then President Biden, on the Polymarket book. His lead peaked at a 72% chance of winning the election on July 16—in the middle of the Republican National Convention and only three days after the assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Harris’ lead was even higher on the New Zealand-based PredictIt, which gave her a 59% chance compared to a 44% chance for Trump.
These odds were posted before Trump’s primetime interview with Tesla and SpaceX owner Elon Musk on Monday night. It is unclear if this highly anticipated interview will affect the betting markets in any way.
