Vladimir Putin has Donald Trump right where he wants him.
Now the world is waiting to see what Russia wants, rather than what Ukraine needs or the United States desires.
The U.S. president sees peace as a means to an end. In his case, bragging rights over Joe Biden and European leaders who have fretted over the bloody conflict for three years.
Of course, Trump also wants the killing to stop. But picking up the phone to the Kremlin and sending over your golfing buddy to knock some sense into the Russians is playing into Putin’s hands.
Because Moscow has no interest in peace.
It is Trump’s strategy, or rather, his lack of strategy, that interests Putin and his pit bull foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. The naive approach, talk of World War II alliances and ending the bloodshed, forgets Russia’s maximalist ambitions.
According to a senior diplomatic source with intimate knowledge of Putin’s inner circle, Trump’s protégé and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will likely bypass the usual protocols when he meets with Putin in Moscow later this week.
There’s a reason the Russian leader sees Witkoff as a man he can do business with. He may be a good negotiator, but he’s a property guy. World peace is a new gig.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who secured Ukraine’s support for a 30-day ceasefire in Jeddah on Tuesday, won’t be there. Neither will Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy on Russia and Ukraine.
Some in the White House are even surprised Kellogg is still in Trump’s orbit, having served as Mike Pence’s national security adviser.
“It’s like sending Witkoff into a lion’s den with Putin and Lavrov,” said the source. “Putin is now in a position where he can call the shots. Trump has created a situation for him that simply wasn’t there before.
“Whatever he says, Putin will not stop the war. Even if he agrees to a ceasefire, he will look for a way to blame Ukraine for breaking it.”
Another insider, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisals from Trump, added: “He may not know it, but Trump is Putin’s puppet right now. He thinks he knows what he’s doing, but he is dancing to Russia’s tune. And they don’t want peace.”
The insider said Putin’s overriding interest is in achieving his imperialist goals. He won’t be willing to give up Ukrainian territory the Russians have stolen, nor is he likely to agree on peacekeeping forces in Ukraine or NATO membership for the Ukrainians.
If he does compromise, it is only because he has spied a loophole that will let him out of it.
Trump doesn’t care too much about these conditions, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must, despite his humiliating climbdown after the Oval Office debacle.
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that it is “closely examining” the U.S.–brokered ceasefire deal. The ball is in Putin’s court.
And he won’t throw it back without a fight.
