Is a recession on the horizon?
Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), joins as a guest on the latest episode of The New Abnormal to give us an answer to the question that is on a lot of people’s minds. There’s good news and not-so-good news.
“We’re not in a recession now. We’re not gonna be in one in the next two-to-three months,” he tells pod co-host Danielle Moodie. But the bad news: “After that, it gets hazy and one might well be coming.”
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He says there are two different recession predictions that he can see happening, but that’s if the “fed” doesn’t cause one on their own first.
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The federal government raising interest rates in order to prevent a recession could actually trigger one and snuff out “the only bright part of the economy,” which is rapid job growth, says Bivens.
“If we overheated, then the Fed really does need to raise rates really fast and cool this economy off before inflation spirals. The other explanation: The sort of shocks and ripples will settle down themselves and if the Fed actually raises rates, in the face of that, they’re not helping much,” he says.
“The labor market has been really strong and it’s been the only real lifeline and source of strength for American workers over this time. So the stakes are really high [if] the Fed really thinks we need to weaken the labor market a lot to get inflation under control. That’s gonna cause a lot of damage.”
Bivens explains to Danielle what that damage would look like, how we got to this point in the first place, and why the American worker is the usual scapegoat when the economy is turning south.
Also in this episode: Danielle and co-host Andy Levy talk about Republicans’ obsession with drag queens, the latest obsessor being Kellyanne Conway. Plus, they name who they think is the most “all-right” Trump kid, if such a kid existed in this family.
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