In my column for CNN, I explain why Israel's new missile-defense system will not be enough to protect the country from a nuclear Iran:
Since 2001, Israel has responded to attacks by deploying ever-more effective technological systems: first the security fence to halt the entry of suicide bombers; now Iron Dome to stop short-range rockets; and in time, the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system against longer-range missiles.
These innovations have defeated and deterred violence and saved many lives.
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But these innovations are also subject to inherent weaknesses.
The rockets launched from Gaza are armed only with explosives and shrapnel. When Iron Dome misses -- and it does sometimes miss -- the Gaza rockets kill and maim only within a very limited radius.
The fence also fails sometimes. Last year for example, a British citizen was killed and 50 people wounded by a suicide bombing near the Jerusalem convention center. Yet as with the Gaza rockets, the lethality of suicide bombings is inherently limited. Israel does not need to reach 100% success to defeat the terrorism threat.
Suppose, however, that the rockets carried nuclear payloads, or that the suicide bombers had access to radioactive materials. Then a 90% success rate would not nearly suffice.
Iran's nuclear program threatens to upend the strategic calculus of the past decade, to overwhelm all Israeli countermeasures to protect Israel's population.
A nuclearized Iran does not imply "incomplete" security for Israel. It would expose Israel to absolute insecurity.
