Kamala Harris Shook Up Politics in a Week. But Can She Win?

Was it really just a week ago?

The Democrats were in crisis. They were cratering in the polls, Joe Biden was refusing to step aside and Democrats were even predicting a landslide win for a resurgent Donald Trump. The former President, fresh from a triumphant RNC and surviving a would-be assassin's bullet (or possibly shrapnel), was starting to look unstoppable.

At 1:46 p.m on Sunday, everything changed. Biden stepped down.

Enter Kamala. Cue, mayhem.

Harris coconut memes exploded across social media from Sunday evening. Charli XCX declared “kamala IS brat,” to the approval of fans and the puzzlement of millions.

Fundraising blew up—within days she raised an unprecedented $126m. Over 170,000 people signed on as volunteers (many in crucial swing states), and thousands more registered to vote. Within two days she had cleared the field of all possible rivals. A ruthlessly-efficient campaign started on Sunday with calls to hundreds of Democratic representatives in Congress to get them on board.

Soon the endorsements rolled in: political heavyweights Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer were followed by a host of celebrities led by George Clooney, Ariana Grande and Barbara Streisand. Beyonce sanctioned the use of her song Freedom for the Harris campaign.

On Thursday it became the theme of the first campaign ad)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4789424-harris-campaign-memo-lays-out-path-to-victory/__;!!LsXw!U93SbsVGJPddaAuVMP7XOhFauqupKf29Y8etuG_LAZZNNmVRoQzjKXP-TcQmdLYbxDYCKTtXLLJ9kK9RJU4nUyQtqM3ZRvzvGQhI$">first campaign ad. Hours later Barack and Michelle Obama were on board. By the end of the week polling showed that Harris had clawed back most of the lead Trump had enjoyed over Biden—with the Wall Street Journal’s poll declaring an effective tie.

In a memo to staff, campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon, said that Harris’ path to victory no longer was restricted to the rust belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (as had become the case with Biden's faltering campaign). Harris’ popularity among young Black and Latino voters had opened up sun belt states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. "We intend to play offense in each of these states, and have the resources and campaign infrastructure to do so,” O’Malley Dillon said.

It was a stunning turnaround. In the space of a week, Harris had built and launched a campaign that ought to have taken months to build. Instead it took days.

When Kamala Harris awoke at her official residence, the U.S. Naval Observatory, in Washington D.C, on Sunday morning she still had no inkling what was about to happen. Later that morning Joe Biden informed her of his intention to step aside. One minute after Biden’s formal announcement Kamala Harris and her team hit the phones.

It was game on.

What would transpire over the course of the next week upended a race that had looked settled. According to most pundits and polls,)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/07/11/amid-doubts-about-bidens-mental-sharpness-trump-leads-presidential-race/__;!!LsXw!U93SbsVGJPddaAuVMP7XOhFauqupKf29Y8etuG_LAZZNNmVRoQzjKXP-TcQmdLYbxDYCKTtXLLJ9kK9RJU4nUyQtqM3ZRmnXFiZw$">According to most pundits and polls, Trump was heading back to the White house. His co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/__;!!LsXw!U93SbsVGJPddaAuVMP7XOhFauqupKf29Y8etuG_LAZZNNmVRoQzjKXP-TcQmdLYbxDYCKTtXLLJ9kK9RJU4nUyQtqM3ZRhl1kDse$">Chris LaCivita felt a Trump victory was a done deal - and that was before the debate.

That may still happen. Harris will be especially vulnerable on issues like the border and the cost of living, and she can expect an initially-flailing Republican response to settle, and improve. Their attacks will be more focussed, with clearer lines on her record, from fracking to criminal justice.

But Harris’ explosive first week had transformed what was becoming a procession into a race. Now comes the hard part. Winning.

The early portents were encouraging. Three weeks ago the Democrats were on defense after Biden’s shocking and disastrous debate performance. Last week it was the Republicans’ turn. J.D. Vance’s jibe from 2021 about “childless cat ladies” was an especially cruel, political misstep. Women were quick to rally behind Harris, and Trump’s issue with women voters was looking more acute.

Jennifer Aniston—hardly renowned for political activism—joined the chorus of disapproval with a perfectly weighted and humane response on Instagram, “Mr. Vance, I pray that your daughter is fortunate enough to bear children of her own one day.”

Harris’ step daughter Ella Emhoff weighed in with a post on Instagram, “How can you be ‘childless’ when you have cutie pie kids like Cole and I 🤔.” Her mother Kerstin told CNN that Harris was, “loving, nurturing, fiercely protective, and always present. I love our blended family and am grateful to have her in it.”

The rock-ribbed conservatives of the Wall Street Journal editorial board joined the chorus of rebuke to Vance, a day after suggesting that Harris could now beat Trump.

Perhaps most ominously, Swifties were voicing their disapproval. Taylor Swift—to date childless—is still to make an endorsement in the 2024 race.

But.

None of this means that Harris is heading for the White House. When the Harris honeymoon ends, as it will, she will be faced with overhauling Trump. She will have to win over independents and swing voters who had deserted Biden.

She will have to avoid the mistakes of her disappointing 2020 Democratic primary campaign.

She may yet have to atone for some of the positions she took during that 2020 primary campaign, most notably supporting a ban on fracking.

In her favor, she has staked out a vigorous position on defending women’s right to choose as Republican states are bent on restricting abortion access. And she has leaned into her prosecutorial background with a willingness to take Trump’s legal issues head-on. Already the race has been framed by the prosecutor vs. the felon. But there is some distance still to travel.

A former British prime minister, Harold Wilson, famously said that, “A week is a long time in politics.” The Harris impact this week could hardly illustrate the point any better.

But that remark also offers a warning to Harris and her supporters. There are 100 days to go. The next 99 days could prove to be an age.