House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had a rare opportunity to strongarm Democrats into sweeping budget cuts and meaningful policy reforms.
If you ask conservative members of his conference, he botched it.
Instead of exiting debt ceiling negotiations with President Joe Biden hoisting a triumphant deal, McCarthy came out with something lukewarm. A narrow addition of work requirements for food stamp recipients between the ages of 50 and 54. Ending the pause on federal student loan payments. A suspension of the debt limit until 2025. Minimal spending caps for two years that would only technically cut spending if you consider the increases relative to inflation.
ADVERTISEMENT
The deal passed Wednesday night 314-117, with 149 Republicans and 165 Democrats voting for it, and 71 Republicans and 46 Democrats voting no. Republicans control the House, but it was Democrats who primarily got the measure across the finish line.
In turn, a handful of House conservatives are offering McCarthy something more heated: threats to leverage a parliamentary weapon—reinforced by the speaker himself in order to secure the gavel—to force a vote on booting him from the gig he’d fought so hard to secure.
For now, few in the House Republican Conference are taking those threats all that seriously. The conservatives most upset with McCarthy are the same bunch who swore they were “Never Kevin” during the speakership battle in January, before they ultimately cleared a path for him after 15 excruciating rounds of voting.
But their frustration isn’t meaningless. It’s emblematic of the cracks in the foundation of McCarthy’s speakership—built on heaps of members who never thought he was the man for the job.
And if a debt deal that dozens of his own members couldn’t stomach isn’t the thing that kills McCarthy’s speakership, it will certainly have left him weaker. Unaddressed, the wound could fester into serious political pain for the GOP leader.
Ahead of Wednesday’s vote, the hard-right flank of the party didn’t hold back in spelling out the poor state of things. Asked by The Daily Beast if the deal would create long-term distrust between McCarthy and conservatives, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC)—perhaps the speaker’s most dogged critic this week—paused for a long time.
“He’s blown Republican unity to smithereens,” Bishop finally said. “So, you can put that in terms of trust, if you want to. It’s just something that is functionally destroyed.”
Pressed on whether he’d back a maneuver to oust McCarthy, Bishop didn’t rule it out.
“The important thing is how the Republican Party operates to serve the American people. And whether we do so in a unified fashion requires unity,” he said. “Unity has to be cultivated, forged, and then preserved… The responsibility for preservation falls to the speaker, and he has utterly failed in that.”
The good news for McCarthy is that it would take more than just one Republican to remove him from his position. The bad news is that it wouldn’t take much more than a half-dozen—if Democrats want to cooperate with the coup.
The slim GOP majority in the House means that McCarthy has very little wiggle room. And even if 95 percent of his conference is behind him, that last 5 percent could sink him.
While there is a clear political hit for McCarthy in securing the debt limit deal, the deal may still end up costing him less than many anticipated. After he won the speakership, conventional wisdom held that the necessity of avoiding a default would strip him of the gavel as unceremoniously as he’d won it.
With only a slim minority of the GOP’s right flank suggesting McCarthy should lose the gig, the speaker’s allies insisted his standing in the conference had not—and would not—take any real hit.
Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) said “Kevin McCarthy is not wasting a lot of time worrying about that right now.” Former right-wing outcast Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) told The Daily Beast she thinks McCarthy’s passage of the debt ceiling deal and other bills this term has shown his propensity for leadership.
Greene also doesn’t suspect threats of a motion to vacate are worth taking seriously. “I don’t [take them seriously],” she said. “I think that’s an unserious move, to be honest.”
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN), who backed McCarthy for the speaker’s gavel, has still consistently opposed his efforts to pass a debt limit deal. He told The Daily Beast he doesn’t make much of the motion to vacate threats either.
“I don't think it matters that much right now. I don't think they have the appetite for another 15 rounds,” he said.
But facing the critical vote Wednesday, conservatives were lambasting the speaker’s handling of negotiations and insisting he’d fumbled. Leaders in the House Freedom Caucus were hoping to rally members against the bill, calling it a win for Democrats and the White House.
Predictably, they didn’t succeed.
Still, those objections practically manifested talk of a motion to vacate—the parliamentary lever that could end McCarthy’s speakership. Bishop was the first to call for members to consider pulling it; Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) joined him ahead of Wednesday’s vote.
“He will win the vote tonight, but after this vote, we will have discussions about whether there should be a motion to vacate or not,” Buck told CNN Wednesday.
It only takes one member to call the vote to oust the speaker—a privilege conservatives won in exchange for their votes for McCarthy. To successfully kick McCarthy to the curb, a majority of members would have to support the resolution.
As of now, there isn't anywhere close to the necessary support for that vote to succeed. Conservatives reasonably know that—but still insist things can always change. Some others aren’t quite ready to call for a motion to vacate, but warn there are open wounds.
“This vote certainly causes fracture in the conference and not just about [the House Freedom Caucus],” Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) wrote in a text to The Daily Beast.
The debt deal won’t be McCarthy’s last big test this Congress, or even this year. Congress is yet to pass the annual budget—something that almost always ends in a stalemate, or even a government shutdown. Of course, the California Republican cannot keep the gavel if Democrats take back the House in 2024, and his focus will shift soon to defending the GOP majority.
And to boot—McCarthy is simply new at this. Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) are seasoned negotiators. McCarthy is still learning the ropes—something that’s been abundantly clear among those who’ve watched past speakers operate.
And yet, the core of the Republican conference insists he’s doing just fine—and question those who suggest someone could do it better.
“He's the only person that can manage this conference,” said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), a leader of the House GOP’s moderate bloc. “It's very easy to criticize a person inside the arena. He's got to make the tough decisions. He's got a very tough job. He's doing the very best he can.”
Asked if he suspects any leadership reckoning after the debt ceiling almost-debacle, Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), another moderate, was less definitive. “Oh, I don't know,” he said.
“There seems like one or two people that way,” Bacon said, referencing the push for a motion to vacate. “So hopefully they can be talked out of it, because this week, it’s the team.”
Even if McCarthy survives the ordeal—which seems like the most likely scenario—he’s certainly been bloodied by the fight. Twenty-nine Republicans voted against a procedural motion from their own party setting up consideration of the debt limit bill. That’s typically a no-no for the party in charge, and that vote alone signals the start of many more problems to come for McCarthy.
Zachary Petrizzo contributed to this piece.
