Kevin McCarthy’s Only Weapon Is His Willingness to Be Humiliated

There’s going to be pain and suffering for Kevin McCarthy. We just don’t know how much.

Since taking over as Speaker of the House in January, McCarthy has been surprisingly resilient and effective. But with Congress back from August recess, McCarthy now faces what may be the greatest challenge of his political career.

The Republican-led House has to pass a spending package between now and September 30, or risk a government shutdown. The GOP’s right flank wants cuts and concessions that GOP moderates and mainstream conservatives view as unachievable, ill-advised, and politically toxic.

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With a razor-thin Republican majority, it’s hard to see how McCarthy can thread the needle of funding the government without enduring a challenge from the right to his speakership. Indeed, these two things may be mutually exclusive.

What we are left with is a chaotic situation with no clear outcome in sight—and no obvious exit strategy. And the more you learn about the situation, the more fraught it appears. Consider the conundrum.

Last month, the conservative House Freedom Caucus published their list of demands, which included opposing a short-term funding extension that would kick the can down the road, as well as refusing to support any bill that does not “Address the unprecedented weaponization of the Justice Department and FBI” and “End the Left’s cancerous woke policies in the Pentagon…”

They also said they would “oppose any blank check for Ukraine…”

Good luck meeting these demands. Let’s say everyone decided to give the Freedom Caucus what they want. What would that even mean, exactly? For example, not everyone agrees we currently give a “blank check” to Ukraine.

When these demands are predictably not met, it seems more likely than not that Freedom Caucus members—who seem to be itching for a fight—could bring a motion to “vacate the chair,” which would force a vote on removing McCarthy as speaker.

But what would Democrats do if that happened?

Back in January, Dems all voted for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries for speaker. And Jeffries, (who recently warned that Republicans are “determined to shutdown the government and crash our economy” and threatened to “fight these MAGA extremists every step of the way”) seems unlikely to bail out McCarthy.

Absent any help from across the aisle, McCarthy can only afford to lose just four Republican votes (remember, there are something like 40 Freedom Caucus members).

Another unknown variable is: What, if anything, would Donald Trump say that might encourage Freedom Caucus Members to oust McCarthy?

Trump would like his own impeachment “expunged” by the House. That hasn’t happened. And presumably, Trump would like Joe Biden impeached by the House. That also hasn’t happened. I don’t think it’s an overstatement to say that if Trump demands McCarthy’s ouster, he’s toast.

On the other hand, McCarthy is basically in the same position he was in back in January, when he shamelessly endured losing multiple votes before finally becoming speaker.

The best thing McCarthy has going for him is the fact that there isn’t another House Republican who is more popular within the GOP conference—or wants a job where they won’t let you lead, and they can threaten to shoot you at any moment. (This is even truer now that Steve Scalise has been diagnosed with blood cancer.)

As long as McCarthy is willing to endure the humiliation in pursuit of his only true goal, remaining speaker, he will likely survive. Again.

But how long will his enemies hamstring him before they back down? And will they eventually cross a line that causes fellow conservatives to begin condemning them? There will be drama.

Of course, even if McCarthy maintains his speakership, that still leaves us with the looming government shutdown to contend with.

Having survived a coup attempt, McCarthy would presumably feel liberated to work with GOP moderates and Democrats to fully fund the government for a year (or at least pass a stopgap continuing resolution).

This denouement, of course, could all happen after a government shutdown has been going on for days or even weeks.

I think McCarthy has to go through the process—and endure the pain. If he tries to demonstrate leadership by proactively standing up to the right (and working with moderates and Dems) they will definitely move to vacate the chair. Moreover, by virtue of his perceived treachery, they will garner more energy and support (and a greater chance to actually oust him). What does this say about the speakership? To paraphrase what John Nance Garner said of the vice presidency, it's not worth a warm bucket of spit.

The good news is that a government shutdown (generally impacting “non essential government workers, who will receive back pay) is not nearly as dangerous as a potential debt default.

The greatest danger is likely to Republican electoral chances (moderate Republicans serving in districts Biden won are obviously the most concerned about this). But we are far enough out that it’s not likely to make a huge difference come 2024.

For example, the quixotic October 2013 government shutdown might have been tantamount to an act of political masturbation for Republicans (who ultimately caved), but it didn’t stop them from having a great midterm election in November 2014.

At some point, the government must be funded. But how? And when? We are left with more questions than answers.

The most likely scenario seems to be a huge shitshow that is embarrassing for McCarthy and the GOP—but ultimately pointless, in the grand scheme of things. But that’s just my best guess.

Buckle up. We are about to enter into a land of the unknown.