For the first time ever, more Americans identify as Republicans than Democrats, according to a new analysis by Gallup. Based on an average of polls between July and September, the pollster found that 48 percent of U.S. adults say they at least lean toward the Republican Party, whereas only 45 percent say the same for the Democratic Party. The result comes a little over a month out from what is shaping up to be a hard-fought presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. “Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party,” Gallup noted in its report. They also added that, historically, Democrats have won the White House when a larger proportion of Americans identified with their party. For instance, in 1992, when Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidency, 52 percent of Americans associated themselves with his party, compared to 40 percent for the Republicans. The gap was closer in 2000—with 48 percent Democrats and 43 percent Republicans—when GOP nominee George W. Bush landed in the White House.