External threat rank: 1st
Internal threat rank: 3rd
Terrorism Trend:
Worsening
“Western Pakistan and the FATA tribal area is the epicenter of global terrorism,” says Rick Nelson, director of the homeland security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Senior Al Qaeda leadership and senior Taliban leadership reside in Pakistan.” Since Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf was forced from office two years ago, the capabilities of the Taliban and Islamic militants are growing with little to check them. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton recently went as far as claiming that government officials were responsible for giving terrorists refuge. ''I find it hard to believe that nobody in your government knows where they are, and couldn't get to them if they really wanted to,” she
said to Pakistani journalists last year.
External threat rank: 4th
Internal threat rank: 1st
Terrorism trend:
Worsening
The escalation of terrorist activity in Afghanistan caused President Obama to dedicate 30,000 additional troops to the warzone. As he recently
described, “Afghanistan is not lost, but for several years it has moved backwards… The status quo is not sustainable." Troops are embedded to curb the growth of the extremist movement, as well as quash domestic violence. “In the past, terrorist attacks targeted Afghan security personnel, but more and more, incidents are targeting civilians,” says Rob Maxwell, regional manager for iJet, a leading international security consultancy.
External threat rank: 2nd
Internal threat rank: 5th
Terrorism Trend:
Worsening
A country that few Americans had even heard of became the buzzword on Christmas Day, as a Nigerian man trained by Al-Qaeda in Yemen attempted to ignite his underwear in an act of terrorism. Labeled as the “next Afghanistan,” government officials now point to Yemen as the next core of operation for the terrorist group. “Recent event have shown that Yemen is an unstable country currently in the state of chaos,” says Nelson, adding that long-term problems of illiteracy and poverty, as well as demographic issues contribute to the nation’s instability. Lawless tribal areas have drawn Al-Qaeda militants from across the region, particularly Saudi Arabia. “Yemen now becomes one of the centers of that fight… If we don't act preemptively, Yemen will be tomorrow's war,” Senator Joseph I. Lieberman has
argued.
External threat rank: 3rd
Internal threat rank: 4th
Terrorism Trend:
Worsening
Pirates? Child’s play. This autumn saw a suicide-bomb attack against an African Union base and the killing of three Somalia government officials. “The bulk of the country is ungoverned,” says Maxwell. As a former base of operation for Al-Qaeda, Somalia’s threat as a terrorist hub “continues to be an area of great concern,” says Nelson. The good news: Somalia’s new President is seen as an omen of a “return to stability and the possibility of progress,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has
said. African Union peacekeepers maintain a presence.
External threat rank: 6th
Internal threat rank: 2nd
Terrorism Trend:
Stable
While risk within the country include kidnapping and improvised explosive devices (IEDS) explosions, the situation on the ground is incrementally calm. The calm before the storm? Increased violence leading up to the upcoming election has undermined government efforts to stabilize, and citizens blame everyone from Americans to neighboring countries. “We now seem to be looking at a pattern of very large-scale attacks on government industries,” says Ed Daly, Director of Watch Operations at iJET. The huge U.S. military presence makes Iraq an unlikely base for an international terror attack.
External threat rank: 7th
Internal threat rank: 7th
Terrorism Trend:
Stable
Since Nigeria broke from military occupation in 1999, the state has boasted political corruption, ethnic and religious division and outbreaks of violence. But despite the nationality of the so-called underwear bomber, not much terrorist activity. “It has some serious challenges as a nation,” says Nelson. “We have to make sure they remain stable.” Unlike many countries in the Middle East, Nigeria doesn’t have a record of directing violence specifically at Americans or Western civilians, either. As the second-largest African economy, it’s one of the most fraudulent and bears very little infrastructure, a “putrefying edifice” of a nation, as one writer
termed it. “It’s entirely possible that it could emerge as a problem in the next decade,” says Maxwell, citing uncertainly surrounding the president’s health. “But its inclusion on the government’s list is a knee-jerk reaction to what happened.”
External threat rank: 8th
Internal threat rank: 6th
Terrorism Trend:
Stable
Home to its own Al-Qaeda team of terrorists, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Algeria has been the battleground for terrorists for years. AQIM wants an Islamic state, collecting troops from neighboring countries to expand their terrorism (bomb attacks, killings and kidnappings are specialties) across borders in the Sahara. Of course, it doesn’t help that Algeria is also battling poverty and unemployment. Still, things have been improving. Algeria’s “on the list because of its history,” say Maxwell, adding that, “nationwide Islamic insurgency has really been whittled away over the last decade.”
External threat rank: 5th
Internal threat rank: 10th
Terrorism Trend:
Stable
“Sudan is on the governments list because the State Department doesn’t like Sudan,” says Maxwell, citing a bad reputation due to ties with Bin Laden and an uncooperative regime. Nelson dubs it “a country of concern.” Last year, the International Criminal Court charged the Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir with five counts of crimes against humanity for his alleged role in the mass killings in Darfur and President Obama announced a policy to work with the Sudanese government, though it wasn’t quite the hard-hitting resolution that many were hoping for. “I think the only thing the government of Sudan understands is bluntness and power,'' Representative Donald M. Payne of New Jersey has
said.
External threat rank: 10th
Internal threat rank: 8th
Terrorism Trend:
Stable
This small, traditionally cosmopolitan country has more often then not been in civil war for the past three decades. A look at the current situation explains why. Conflict between pro- and anti-Syrian sects remains unresolved, leaving potential for terrorist violence. Hezbollah’s growing presence, meanwhile, both in terms of a militia and political movement poses long-term problems, especially the group could draw Israel’s ire at any time. Last year’s election was peaceful, but the U.S. State Department warns of “potential for a spontaneous upsurge in violence,”
says Maxwell, “Lebanon is a bit of a Tinderbox. Things could get bad very quickly there.” The danger it poses other countries could “be a real issue with nuclear issues in Iran,” says Nelson.
External threat rank: 9th
Internal threat rank: 11th
Terrorism Trend:
Worsening
Like an insolent adolescent, Iran seems determined to hide and advance its nuclear program despite requests from the United Nations. Assistance for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas are well-documented. Internal violence and mass protests, sparked by contested results of last year’s Presidential election, have put the country at the forefront of international news (and Twitter feeds). “Iran is an unstable revolutionary power with global ambitions and terrorist ties. Nuclear proliferation does not get more dangerous than this,”
wrote Michael Gerson, Washington Post columnist and senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Engagement's Center on Faith & International Affairs, last December. Terrorism loves government instability—right now, Iran seems increasingly unstable.
External threat rank: 12th
Internal threat rank: 9th
Terrorism Trend:
Stable
“Saudi Arabia is the boogie man in the Islamist movement in terms of funding and ideological backing,” says Daly. But the nation itself sees very little terrorist violence and the risk of it becoming a hotspot for terror is slim, even as philosophies and militants spawned there (almost all of the 9/11 hijackers, of course, were Saudi nationals). Oil money—the Saudis hold 25% of the world’s oil reserves—ensures a strong, often ruthless, central government. “Because security is so tight, you’re not going to see terrorist camps in Saudi Arabia,” says Nelson. This comes at price. “Saudi Arabia's already dire human rights record has been made even worse by fresh abuses in the name of countering terrorism,” Kate Allen, UK director of Amnesty International, has
said.
External threat rank: 11th
Internal threat rank: 12th
Terrorism Trend:
Stable
In recent years, George W. Bush threatened Syria for harboring Hezbollah and Hamas and allying with Iran. And Israel attacked what appeared to be a nascent nuclear program. But, “by and large, it’s pretty peaceful,” says Maxwell. “But it has a way of rankling [U.S.] International relations at times.” Despite a warming of relations with the West, the U.S. still classifies the country as one of four “sponsors of terrorism,” with Cuba, Iran and Sudan. “I don’t see Syria as a threat because it’s a stable and rational state to a degree,” adds Nelson.
