The plan for Nikki Haley has always been to get hot at the right time.
Judging by available polls, the former South Carolina governor and 2024 presidential hopeful is not exactly combustible right now. Like other contenders, she remains far behind former President Donald Trump—an average of 50 points behind.
But in a GOP primary that has remained static for most of the year, Haley seems to be doing something new: pulling together the hodgepodge coalition of non-MAGA Republicans that could give her a chance to actually make Trump sweat.
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Take former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, who recently suspended his longshot anti-Trump presidential campaign. His decision to drop out was paired with an endorsement of Haley.
“To me it came down to: Is there someone with momentum, that has the organization necessary to win, and who is built for these complicated times?” Hurd told The Daily Beast in an interview.
There’s evidence that the remaining candidates see Haley as their biggest obstacle to a direct challenge against Trump: they are mentioning her increasingly often, and attacking her record.
It’s a sign the only woman in the GOP field may finally be the one to lay claim to the mantle of—as Chris Christie put it to The Daily Beast—“the viable Trump alternative.”
Ron DeSantis, once believed to be the non-Trump GOP hope, has turned most of his fire toward Haley. The pro-DeSantis Never Back Down Super PAC is running a Haley attack ad on repeat, painting her as being too cozy with China from her time at the United Nations and as South Carolina governor.
At a stop in Rye, New Hampshire on Tuesday night, DeSantis spent much more time attacking Haley than Trump, part of a broader move to position himself as more pro-Israel than the former ambassador.
Meanwhile, Sen. Tim Scott has increasingly undercut his fellow South Carolinian, with whom he shares deep history and a chilly relationship.
Speaking to the Washington Examiner this week, Scott swiped at Haley by saying “the media and the Left seem to be rallying behind the most moderate candidate in the race.”
“I’m not sure if that’s good for the party,” he said, “but it certainly is something that’s expected.”
Tom Sherbondi takes a picture as Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley poses with his son Sawyer during a campaign event.
Scott OlsonEven Trump has begun to notice Haley more. At an event in New Hampshire last Monday, the former president referred to her multiple times as “bird brain,” mentioning her in the same breath as “DeSanctus.”
To Hurd, it’s clear what’s happening.
“Of course Trump and DeSantis are attacking her,” he said. “They’re attacking her because they’re afraid of her.”
For Haley, the increased attention is payoff for an old-school strategy in which she has meticulously worked the early voting states that shape the primary contest.
Over eight long months, she’s plugged away on the road, speaking in front of smaller crowds and carefully watching their reactions to a stump speech that has been tweaked, trimmed, and tailored to appeal to the widest possible coalition of Never Trump Republicans and wary margins of the MAGA base.
The debates have played to Haley’s strengths, with the candidate demonstrating little hesitation in taking whacks at her opponents, including with one of the most memorable lines of the primary thus far when she told Vivek Ramaswamy “honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say.” For Republicans like Hurd looking to feel comfortable backing a Trump challenger, the debates proved “that she ain’t going to take crap from nobody.”
Nikki Haley files the New Hampshire Primary Ballot.
Michael M Santiago/Getty ImagesWhile Haley remains far behind Trump in the polls, she is also the only non-Trump candidate who has experienced any kind of forward momentum in the eyes of the GOP electorate.
Unlike other candidates who experienced a polling surge thus far, Haley has been able to sustain it, and the Nov. 8 debate in Miami provides another chance for her to build on it with a brief window to outshine Trump in the news.
To supporters like Hurd, she has plenty of room to grow, even with the Iowa caucus just over two months away.
“Here’s the reality: most people aren’t going to start paying attention to the campaign until after Christmas,” Hurd said, pointing to the upcoming debate as another opportunity for Haley to get a boost from what’s proven to be one of her strong suits.
If Haley can keep building on her polling surge and hold down a strong second place in early state polling, that combination could spark the right conditions for her to have a real go at her former boss.
Haley’s campaign has focused relatively evenly between New Hampshire and Iowa, as rivals such as DeSantis and Scott have reserved the bulk of their resources for Iowa
In New Hampshire, Haley has already leapfrogged DeSantis for second place in some of the more recent polls. In Iowa, she’s closed the gap on DeSantis through August and September, going from 4 percent at the beginning of August to third place at 11 percent in the most recent Iowa State University poll, just 6 points behind DeSantis.
“We just need somebody that won’t be Donald Trump, so I think people are talking about how if she gets some momentum, then people will jump on that bandwagon,” a Republican presidential campaign veteran told The Daily Beast. “They’ve gotta believe she can really do it, and it looks like she might be able to. She could become the darling of the independents.”
With Gov. Chris Sununu’s backing in New Hampshire serving as a proxy for the battle over the Never Trump vote, Haley secured a major victory in the otherwise parochial field of local endorsements.
While the governor himself may still be on the sidelines—though he has said several times that he is open to endorsing early in the name of shrinking the field against Trump—Haley locked up another even more notable endorsement on Wednesday from Judd Gregg, the next best thing to a household name in the state as a former governor and congressman.
Another prominent New Hampshire lawmaker who’s been courted by several campaigns for an endorsement explained why they’re leaning more toward Haley than DeSantis.
“I want the candidates to put boots on the ground here,” the New Hampshire lawmaker said, requesting anonymity because they have not officially endorsed Haley yet. “I was looking at a bunch of different candidates: DeSantis, Vivek for a little while, Nikki Haley. I never had a chance to meet Tim Scott, but I got a phone call from him, which I appreciated.”
Additionally, Haley’s boost appears mostly organic, and not a byproduct of major campaign spending–unlike her rivals DeSantis or Ramaswamy—who’s turned out to be the biggest spender of the year so far, even surpassing Trump
While Haley’s personal history as an accountant is far from spotless, as The Daily Beast previously reported, her campaign’s frugality has been a major selling point for donors and early primary state poobahs. In the third quarter, Haley’s operation posted a “burn rate” of just 42 percent—meaning the campaign spent less than half of what they raised—and reported no debt. Compare that to the DeSantis campaign, which turned in a burn rate of 99 percent over the same period, The New York Times reported, while carrying $1.1 million in debt.
Coupled with a network of hundreds of volunteers providing free labor to fuel the ground game—which the DeSantis campaign has largely outsourced to the Never Back Down PAC, though campaign surrogate Ken Cuccinelli told The Daily Beast on Tuesday night that both entities do door knocking—the Haley team is promising Trump-wary Republicans an investment in a candidate who can outlast the other Trump alternatives.
For the New Hampshire lawmaker leaning toward Haley, though, there’s an intangible side that’s leading them and other Sununu Never Trump acolytes to coalesce around Haley.
“She’s very down to earth,” the lawmaker said, “She’s one of those people who makes you feel better and more hopeful after you talk to them one-on-one. That resonates with almost anybody.”
The other thing that’s stood out to this lawmaker is Haley’s ability to do the near impossible: penetrate the noise and excite voters who don’t live and breathe politics in the first-in-the-nation primary state.
“You can’t tell who the Haley people are, which is really interesting,” the lawmaker said, though there is a noticeable overlap between late-breaking independent voters who backed Amy Klobuchar in 2020 and Haley’s early crowds of tire kickers.
The lawmaker said they’ve stumbled upon Haley fans among “former Trump voters, really super conservative people,” but also “people on the other side of the spectrum, independents and Democrats who are giving Nikki Haley a good look. And that’s the candidate I’m looking for, I’m looking for that coalition builder.”
With the next debate less than two weeks away, Haley could deliver a knockout blow to DeSantis.
The Trump campaign did not return a request for comment on how they might attack Haley, though they have an established playbook on how to do so, as The Daily Beast reported in February.
For some Haley admirers, if Trump does come at her full bore and not just in a bundle with DeSantis, it could serve as a badge of honor and help her momentum snowball all the more.
“Absolutely I think it will help,” the Republican presidential campaign veteran told The Daily Beast. “If Trump’s worried about a woman, then that shows she’s really gaining on him.”
