Allan Lichtman, the American University professor and election forecaster who accurately predicted nine of the last 10 elections, offered an explanation on why his famed “13 keys” system failed to predict Donald Trump’s win over Kamala Harris.
“As I said, things could go wrong. There could be unprecedented events that change the pattern of 160 years of history. That’s what happened here,” Lichtman told NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo in an interview on Monday.
An embarrassed Lichtman pulled his prediction model around 10:30 p.m. on Election Night last Tuesday and said he would take time to investigate why he was wrong. Almost a week later, the professor reflected on the election results with the NewsNation host, and said two main factors threw a wrench into his prediction model.
ADVERTISEMENT
Lichtman blamed disinformation first and foremost, and called out two culprits by name: “You talked about a grievance-driven election, but a lot of that grievance was driven by disinformation. It starts with Fox News and conservative media. Conservative podcasters with tens of millions of views. But we’ve seen something brand new this time—the $300 billionaire, Elon Musk, putting his thumb on the scales through his control of X, formerly Twitter.”
Lichtman said that voters were given “vast disinformation” on a variety of issues, including jobs, immigration, unemployment, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and even hurricane relief.
The second factor, according to Lichtman, was what he called the “dark side of American history”—elements that included “racism, misogyny, xenophobia, antisemitism.”
Cuomo pushed back on the American history professor’s assertion, noting that Trump made significant gains in non-white demographics where Republicans usually struggle, including Black men and Latino men and women.
“The Democrats lost because they underperformed, Allan,” Cuomo said. “They misread the main motivators for the voters and they underperformed.” Lichtman seemed to agree with the host, and said the primary cause was still disinformation that can affect all demographics of voters.
Lichtman said he was planning to reassess his famous “13 keys” system, and told Cuomo it was possible he would add more factors to his model.
“I admitted I was wrong, I admitted the keys don’t work,” Lichtman said. “Remember, the premise of the keys is that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides if a White House party has governed well enough to get four more years. But if views of the White House party are controlled by disinformation, particularly driven by those that are so rich that they have extraordinary influence beyond anyone else, than maybe the premise of the keys needs to be changed.”
The Daily Beast Podcast episodes are released every Thursday. Like and download on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, or your favorite podcast app. And click here for email updates as each new episode drops.
