A new 2024 election post-mortem shows all the political trends that analysts predicted as a result of President Donald Trumpâs first term in office have proven to be wrong, according to the former Obama aides of Pod Save America.
After Trumpâs 2016 victory, many people thought Trumpâs âracistâ comments and hardline stance on immigration would alienate naturalized citizens and voters of color, host Dan Pfeiffer said during Fridayâs episode. They also thought his reactionary policies would radicalize young voters to become the most progressive generation in history.
In fact, a new study from the campaign firm Blue Rose Researchâwhich combined precinct-level voter data with 26 million survey responsesâshowed that something completely different happened during the 2024 election.
âBy some measure, you can argue that Gen Zâdriven mostly by young men, but not entirelyâis the most conservative generation out there,â Pfeiffer told his co-host Jon Favreau. âA 75-year-old white man was more likely to support Kamala Harris than an 18-year-old white man.â
Another big surprise, he continued, was that estimates suggest naturalized U.S. citizensâwho make up 10 percent of the electorateâswung from supporting former President Joe Biden by +27 in the 2020 election to supporting Trump by +1 in 2024.
âHere is someone who ran on building a wall to keep immigrants out, who signed a Muslim ban to keep immigrants out, who put kids in cages and then ran on mass deportation in his next presidential campaignâand he won immigrants,â Pfeiffer said.
Democrats need to âreally dig inâ and try to understand why, and where they failed to make a case to those voters, he said.
Under Trump, politics has become less racially polarized, meaning Black and Latino voters who identify as moderate or conservative are now voting for Republicans at similar levels to white moderates and conservatives.
âOne way to think about these results is that everything that we thought was going to happen after Trump was elected in 2016âto politics, to the Republican coalition, to everythingâthe exact opposite happened,â Pfeiffer said.
The Blue Rose Research report ultimately found that support for Trump hadnât gone up from 2020 to 2024; rather, support for Harris and the Democrats went down.
The survey asked voters what issues they cared about most and whether they trusted Democrats or Republicans more on those issues.
The issues most important to voters were issues where trust in Democrats was lowest: the cost of living, the economy, inflation, taxes and spending. The No. 5 issue was healthcare, which was the first issue where Democrats were trusted more than Republicans.
âI look at this healthcare dot, and thereâs our opportunity,â Pfeiffer said.
If Republicans in Congress donât act, healthcare premiums will go up for millions of Americans because the additional funding and tax credits that went into effect during the pandemic are set to expire this year. Republicans have put forward a spending plan that would make it difficult to avoid cutting Medicaid, which covers 80 million people.
âHereâs a chance where there is an issue that voters are about where we have a huge trust advantage, and we have two opportunities to drive that message home this year,â Pfeiffer said.
