Marlow: Well, we’ve made it. We broke down why Best Picture frontrunner CODA, a harmless coming-of-age story about a hearing girl in a deaf family who wants to sing, has become Film Twitter’s public enemy No. 1; the bizarreness of that Zelensky-cameo proposition and having a bunch of extreme sports dudes present at the Oscars, including an accused sexual harasser in Shaun White; and the myriad ways the Academy shot themselves in the foot this year. Now, it’s time to discuss who we think will win, and who we actually want to win—and why.
Kevin: BARB AND STAR GO TO VISTA DEL MAR! Oh wait…
Marlow: The biggest lock of the night, it seems, is Ariana DeBose taking home Best Supporting Actress for her turn as Anita in West Side Story. DeBose’s win would make history. She would be the first queer woman to win an Oscar, and only the second Latina to win (following Rita Moreno, who won for the same role in 1961’s West Side Story). Why the Academy will only recognize Latinas for the role of Anita, a caricature-ish part in a flashy musical who bad-mouths Puerto Rico and sings the praises of her adopted home of America, is a bit strange. But I’m very happy for DeBose. I would’ve personally given it to Ruth Negga, who exudes Old Hollywood glamour, vulnerability, and restraint in Passing. A remarkable performance that was rather foolishly overlooked.
Kevin: I can only assume that no Academy voters watched the film Mass, because I cannot fathom how anyone who did wouldn’t immediately vote for Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton to be nominated, share the award, be given dual Nobel Prizes, and stage an immediate Kennedy Center Honors ceremony to fete their unparalleled contributions to the craft of acting. Barring that, DeBose absolutely should be holding that statue. I don’t necessarily agree with your characterization of the role, especially since her performance was so titanic: dynamic in every way you’d crave by the second person to portray the iconic part on screen, but also so full of trembling pathos and nuance. People tend to toss around the word “revelation” so often it’s lost all meaning, to the point that DeBose almost took it as a challenge to redefine it again.
Marlow: DeBose was very good as Anita. Rita Moreno was, in my opinion, better in the ’61 version, so I guess I’m just not as enthused as others by the idea of an actor playing the same role and doing a slightly less dynamic job. But maybe I’m suffering from remake fatigue.
Kevin: Yet no one says anything like that about Denzel Washington being the 407th person to play Macbeth on screen. Still, as far as biggest locks go, I think she and CODA’s Troy Kotsur are on an even playing field there. At this point, I can’t imagine him not winning. I’m afraid if I start describing his performance here I will start uncontrollably weeping—as I do any time I think of it—and I need to emotionally conserve myself for when his name is called Sunday. But it’s so special and, again, historic: He would be the first male deaf actor to win an Oscar.
Marlow: He taught us all how to say “my nuts are on fire” in sign language. But really, it’s a stunning turn by Kotsur, and I agree that he’s lapped The Power of the Dog’s Kodi Smit-McPhee, who looked like the favorite for quite some time. My pick would have been Anders Danielsen Lie (whose chief gig, incredibly enough, is as a doctor battling COVID-19 ) for his complex portrait of a cartoonist balancing several crises in The Worst Person in the World.
Kevin: The way that I am in love with this man after watching that film. I haven’t stopped thinking about that movie—or its swoon-worthy star—for a second since I first saw it. At the risk of creating an opening for more Marlow West Side Story disparaging, I do wish Mike Faist was in here, and, similarly Robin de Jésus from Tick, Tick…Boom! Both brought unexpected vitality to key supporting roles, showing off extraordinary musical chops while they were at it.
Marlow: I thought Faist was superb. Of all the actors in the new West Side Story, his Riff was the one performance that dramatically improved on the original. (Full disclosure: West Side Story was one of my favorite movies as a kid. My parents will tell you how annoying I was about it.) If only Elgort and Zegler had any chemistry…
Kevin: Full disclosure: West Story was also one of my favorite movies as a kid. One can like and appreciate both!
Marlow: But Kotsur is a fine choice. Speaking of CODA, it’s looking like it’ll take home Best Picture, right? They even had a screening Tuesday at the White House with some of the actors in attendance. That charming cast is working the awards circuit Parasite-style and winning over voters left and right.
Kevin: Up until a few days ago, I would have found it unfathomable that any film besides The Power of the Dog was going to win Best Picture. It just seemed like such a consensus pick, and, even if asshats like Sam Elliott were turned off by its gay themes, I couldn’t imagine, based on how the season was going, what would win instead.
Marlow: I saw a meme of that scene in A Star Is Born featuring Sam Elliott crying while pulling out of the driveway captioned, “actual image of sam elliott leaving the theater after seeing the power of the dog and being said because it was a lil gay and directed by a woman.” Kfal, I howled. Look, I love me some Sam Elliott in a western—fuck yeah, Tombstone—but if he’s just been made aware of the homoerotic subtext of the western film then he’s been watching them with blinders on. Also, I would love to watch Road House with Sam Elliott to see if he caught any of that film’s blatant homoeroticism or if it went completely over his head.
Kevin: CODA’s surge has taken me by surprise, mostly because I didn’t think, at least anecdotally, that anybody had actually seen it. (The amount of confused, blank stares I would get from people outside the industry whenever I brought it up.) But I discounted the fact that everyone who does see it—save for the most cynical cranks among us: film writers and awards pundits—absolutely adore it. It’s certainly more accessible than Jane Campion’s slow-burn western, and, hell, things in the world are still pretty shitty right now. It feels good to cry tears of happiness while watching CODA. And let’s not forget how much the Academy likes to feel good about themselves. A CODA Best Picture win would be a major show of inclusivity, acceptance, and representation for an often marginalized community.
Marlow: Apple TV+ (CODA) and Netflix (The Power of the Dog) locked in an intense battle over who will be the first streaming service to win the Best Picture Oscar. The times they are a-changin’. My top films of the year were Licorice Pizza and The Worst Person in the World, but hey, a CODA Best Picture win will be fun and they’ll give a lovely speech, so what the heck. And again, I can’t stress enough that the Oscars are about momentum and networking, and the CODA cast has been working it like no other movie cast this awards season. The great Jane Campion, on the other hand, really stuck her foot in it with that senseless comment about Venus and Serena Williams. But I still think she’ll win Best Director, becoming only the third woman to do so after Chloe Zhao for Nomadland and Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. And look, Campion would be a deserving winner. I just find it pretty nuts that Paul Thomas Anderson hasn’t won Best Director (or a single Oscar) yet. The guy is a master.
Kevin: That’s true, but, wow, every frame of The Power of the Dog is just breathtaking. I’ve never seen such an intimate story told with such an epic visual aesthetic.
Marlow: It’s stunningly shot—though clearly filmed in New Zealand and looked nothing like Montana, which took me out of the action at several points.
Kevin: I’ve been shocked to learn this awards season just how many voters and critics are experts on the respective topographies of New Zealand and Montana!
Marlow: Some of us have been to Montana and seen The Lord of the Rings!
Kevin: Regardless of how much I personally adore the other nominees’ films [hides in a corner and feebly champions Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story one more time], Campion’s accomplishment is so undeniable to me. Public missteps aside, this is her category to win. Also to her advantage: CODA isn’t nominated. CODA’s Emilia Jones also didn’t make it into the Best Actress category—though I think had voting happened even just a week later, the film’s momentum could have carried her in there. She’s in good company.
Marlow: Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) and Agathe Rouselle (Titane) are three actresses I would’ve liked to see nominated. As far as the latter two go, the Academy has a longstanding bias against most international performances, so I’m not surprised they were passed over. Isabelle Huppert, in this writer’s opinion the greatest actress alive, wasn’t even nominated for The Piano Teacher. What a farce.
Kevin: As for any gay man, winnowing down this category is an annual exercise in Sophie’s Choice emotional torture. The final five are a strong lineup (yes, I even understand why Nicole Kidman is there for Being the Ricardos), but that means that The Worst Person in the World’s Renate Reinseve, West Side Story’s Rachel Zegler, Respect’s Jennifer Hudson, darkhorse favorite Taylour Paige from Zola, and, most notably, Lady Gaga from House of Gucci lost out in a game of numbers.
Marlow: Love Nicole Kidman—friends of mine have all heard me ramble about how she should’ve won every award under the sun for To Die For—but was not a fan of Being the Ricardos. Find it strange that Javier Bardem was nominated, seeing as Sorkin’s film gives you absolutely zero sense of how dynamic a presence Desi Arnaz was.
Kevin: I’m not surprised! In fact, I predicted his nomination way back in December after I screened Being the Ricardos for the first time. It was a dark prediction, yes. But it came true. “Deserves to be nominated” and “Academy for some reason nominated them” are often very different things.
Marlow: And I don’t really understand the Lady Gaga buzz, to be honest. I thought she should have won for A Star Is Born, and she was a cartoonish blast for the first 45 minutes of Gucci until the entire operation went off the rails.
Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Searchlight PicturesKevin: That is the most deeply offensive thing you’ve ever said to me.
Marlow: Knew I was poking the bear there!
Kevin: In any case, the strength of the lineup also makes it impossible to predict. The current favorite is Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. That would be nice! Olivia Coleman for The Lost Daughter would get my vote. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kristen Stewart win, given how much people who like that performance love it. God, even Kidman has a chance, after which Film Twitter would collapse in on itself into a black hole. But I think that Chastain probably takes it.
Marlow: Chastain is gonna take it for that SNL movie, because if the Academy loves anything it’s biopics... and ridiculous prosthetics... and a lack of subtlety. Of the nominees, my vote would also be for Olivia Colman. I felt her movie theater rant in my bones. Though as Daily Beast readers surely know by now, I ride hard for KStew and would be over the moon if she got the hardware.
Kevin: She’s had a roller coaster of a season, too, from being the presumed winner at one point to being considered a surprise, lucky-to-be-nominated also-ran in the end.
Marlow: “Academy Award nominee Kristen Stewart.” You love to see it. When it comes to Best Actor, it’s looking like Will Smith is the odds-on favorite for embodying Richard Williams in King Richard. It’s been a fascinating race, since Smith’s gone relatively M.I.A. following his I used to vomit when I came book tour, whereas his stiffest competition, Tick, Tick…Boom!’s Andrew Garfied, has been inescapable—and popped up in the biggest movie of the year. I actually think that his charm offensive will pay off and we’ll see Spider-Man 2.0 beat out Deadshot 1.0 in an upset.
Kevin: I thought I was the one who was going to be our cuckoo out on a limb here because my biggest prediction for an upset on Sunday night is that Garfield is going to win. But here we both are! Quoth the poet Will.i.am, “I gotta feeling, woo-oo,” and, riding on nothing more than that, I think Garfield over Smith will happen. Either way, it’s a win-win scenario for me. Smith is definitely the favorite, definitely deserves an Oscar, and, if his SAG Awards speech was any indication, is definitely going to give us a nice, very Oscar-y moment with his speech. And Garfield is sensational in Tick, Tick…Boom! and is gosh-darn charming, I’d be so happy to see him win. Anyway, I look forward to checking back in on Sunday night and being wrong about every single thing I just said.
