Online Gamblers Bet Big on Next High-Level Exit From Trump’s Cabinet
The odds are stacked against a Cabinet secretary after one of her subordinates quit over the war in Iran.
Prediction markets are betting that President Donald Trump’s spy chief will be the next high-level departure from the administration after one of her subordinates publicly opposed the Iran war.
Bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi think Tulsi Gabbard, 44, is on the rocks after Joe Kent resigned as director of the National Counterterrorism Center—and denounced Trump’s war against Iran in the process.
Tulsi Gabbard oversees the National Counterterrorism Center.
Kent Nishimura/REUTERS
In a letter addressed to Trump and posted to X on Tuesday, Kent, 45, said he “cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran.”
“Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” he wrote.
Joe Kent resigned as the center's director over the Iran war.
Joe Kent
On Kalshi, the odds that Kent’s boss, Gabbard, would leave the Trump administration this year shot up from 39 percent an hour before his resignation letter became public to 62 percent early Tuesday afternoon.
Odds against Gabbard rose on betting market Kalshi after Kent's resignation.
Kalshi
On Polymarket, the odds that the Director of National Intelligence would be out by March 31 also saw a spike from 3.8 percent on Tuesday morning to 38 percent in the afternoon after Kent announced his resignation.
Odds against the Director of National Intelligence also saw a spike on Polymarket.
Polymarket on X
The odds of Gabbard’s departure in both prediction markets have since declined slowly but steadily.
In a statement after Kent’s departure, Gabbard said her office provides Trump with “the best information available to inform his decisions.”
Sign Up for The Swamp Newsletter
By clicking “SUBSCRIBE” you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
“After carefully reviewing all the information before him, President Trump concluded that the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran posed an imminent threat and he took action based on that conclusion,” she said.
The White House did not immediately return a request for comment.
Trump, 79, nominated Kent to the counterterrorism center in February last year. He was confirmed by the Senate in July, overcoming staunch opposition from groups that flagged his links to far-right groups and his promotion of debunked conspiracy theories, including that the 2020 election was “rigged & stolen” and the FBI planned the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot.
Kent is a former Army Green Beret who lost his wife, Navy Senior Chief Petty Officer Shannon Kent, to a suicide bombing in Syria in 2019.
Kent's resignation divided MAGAworld.
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
“I pray that you will reflect upon what we are doing in Iran, and who we are doing it for,” he wrote to Trump. “The time for bold action is now. You can reverse course and chart a new path for our nation, or you can allow us to slip further toward decline and chaos. You hold the cards.”
Trump later told reporters in the Oval Office that he was glad to see Kent go.
“I always thought he was a nice guy but I always thought he was weak on security. Very weak on security,” he said. “It’s a good thing that he’s out because he said that Iran was not a threat. Iran was a threat—every country realized what a threat Iran was.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also penned a lengthy statement countering Kent’s claims that Iran did not pose a threat to the U.S.
“As someone who actually witnesses President Trump’s decision-making process on a daily basis, I can attest to the fact that he is always looking to do what’s in the best interest of the United States of America — period,” she wrote on X.
The list of top officials viewed by Kalshi gamblers as most likely to leave the administration this year is topped by Kristi Noem, whom Trump fired as Homeland Security secretary at the start of the month following the chaotic immigration blitz in Minnesota.
Noem was trailed by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who is facing a probe over allegations of an affair with a subordinate and drinking on the job, and Amy Gleason, acting administrator of the now-dismantled DOGE.
Democratic lawmakers have introduced a bill that seeks to ban prediction market bets on sensitive government actions, such as military operations, after online gamblers made a killing from eyebrow-raising bets on the U.S. strikes on Iran.
See more of our coverage in your search results.
Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast here.
Register below to read this article for free or subscribe
to unlock unlimited access to The Daily Beast.
Monthly
$1
First month then $5.99/month
Annual
$35
First year then $59.99/year
Premium
$79
First year then $119.99/year
*Substack access provided by the next business day, using your subscription email. Choosing the Premium plan constitutes your permission to share your subscription email with Substack and your agreement to Substack’s Privacy Policy.
Already have an account? Sign In
Looks like you already have a subscription!
You're all set!
Thanks for subscribing.
Sign in or create an account
Login dialog
Loading comments…