Thursday’s retaliatory airstrike launched by Pakistan against Iran, which sparks fears of a broader conflict, almost certainly could not have happened without the consent of China. And only China can effectively defuse tensions between the two neighboring states.
Pakistan retaliated to an Iran airstrike in its southwestern Balochistan province after 24 hours, reportedly hitting an alleged terrorist base in the Sistan-Baluchistan province of Iran. Now, after tit-for-tat attacks by Iran and Pakistan, China is poised to make an exclusive entry, using its leverage on both neighbors and urging them to exercise restraint and resolve their issues through negotiation.
With Pakistan’s retaliatory airstrike in Iran, the ball has returned to Tehran’s court. Another retaliatory attack by Iran against Pakistan could break out an all-out war between Iran and Pakistan. Any further destabilization in Pakistan (particularly in its restive Balochistan province bordering Iran) will not serve Beijing’s interest. China is the biggest foreign investor in Balochistan where it operates a deep-sea port at Gwadar and a gold mine at Saindak, near the Pakistan-Iran border.
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A broader conflict will definitely be inimical to China's interests in the region. At the same time, leaving Balochistan vulnerable as a soft target for a foreign power to hit targets inside the province will also not serve the strategic interests of either China or Pakistan. Pakistan’s retaliatory attack sent a message to all the regional powers hostile to China and Pakistan that any aggression against Chinese stakes will be responded to with force.
Strategically located Balochistan has witnessed a steady growth of Chinese stakes. Beijing cannot abide foreign interference or influence in Pakistan, particularly Balochistan, where it has heavily invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project of China's Belt and Road (BRI) initiative. That is why Islamabad, however, categorically refused to allow the U.S. any bases on Pakistani territory after its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.
U.S. forces had been using the Shamsi airbase in Balochistan province bordering Afghanistan to attack their targets inside Afghanistan since the U.S. invasion in 2001. President Joe Biden’s administration wanted Islamabad to continue to extend similar facilities after the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, but Islamabad could not go against Chinese interests by providing the U.S. with airbases in the country where China is the biggest investor. (Pakistan was not part of China’s BRI in 2001.)
Islamabad claimed that hideouts used by separatist Baloch outfits in Iranian territory—such as Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)—were successfully struck in Thursday’s airstrike. BLA is an ethnic Baloch separatist group fighting for independence and separation of Balochistan from the state of Pakistan.
BLA is fiercely anti-China and it has carried out many suicide attacks against Chinese nationals in Pakistan. For example, the BLA attacked the Chinese consulate in 2018 in Pakistan’s southern port city of Karachi. In 2019, the same group attacked Chinese tourists at the Pearl Continental Hotel in Gwadar. In 2022, a suicide attack by a BLA female suicide bomber outside the Confucius Institute of the Karachi University in Karachi killed four people, including three Chinese teachers and their Pakistani driver.
BLA asked China to withdraw its interests from Balochistan and close down all projects under CPEC, the flagship project of BRI. In 2022, the militant group in a video message on social media warned China, “The Baloch Liberation Army guarantees you that CPEC will fail miserably on Baloch land… you still have time to quit Balochistan, or you will witness a retaliation from Baloch sons and daughters that you will never forget.”
Iran’s airstrike in Pakistan provided both Islamabad and Beijing an opportunity to strike a BLA base in Iran’s territory. And they didn’t miss that opportunity.
Again, it is highly unlikely that Pakistan conducted an airstrike against Iran without taking China, its all-weather friend and strategic partner, into its confidence. Following the reprisal attack launched by Islamabad in Iran, Beijing offered to mediate between Iran and Pakistan. “The Chinese side sincerely hopes that the two sides can exercise calm and restraint and avoid an escalation of tension,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning. “We are also willing to play a constructive role in de-escalating the situation if both sides so wish.”
Both Tehran and Islamabad enjoy cordial ties with Beijing. China is one of the top importers of Iranian oil. Iran’s cooperation enabled Beijing to expand its influence in the oil-rich Middle Eastern region. Pakistan is the closest and time-tested friend of China. Both Pakistan and Iran are members of China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
China has all the capacity to mediate between Tehran and Islamabad, as both nations cannot afford to ignore Beijing's call for peace. Moreover, China would be the real loser in the Iran-Pakistan war game if it fails to de-escalate their border tensions, which might turn into a wider conflict engulfing the whole region.
