Pete Hegseth’s chances of being confirmed to lead the Defense Department have sharply declined on Polymarket.
The plunge, from an 89 percent chance at his announcement to a low of 47 on Thursday afternoon, came shortly after Donald Trump’s other controversial cabinet appointee, Matt Gaetz, pulled himself from the running. His odds slightly rebounded on Friday morning to a 57 percent chance, but are still well below their peak.
Complicating things for the 44-year-old Hegseth is the recent release of a police report that contains graphic sexual assault allegations against him from 2017.
ADVERTISEMENT
The alleged rape, as police described it, was reportedly unknown to Trump’s transition team prior to announcing it wanted Hegseth to lead the Pentagon.
Hegseth, a former National Guard officer and Fox News commentator, told police the incident was consensual and he ultimately wasn’t charged. However, he still paid the woman a settlement to fend off a lawsuit his lawyer described as being “baseless.”
While Hegseth has been absolved of criminal prosecution, the same was true of Gaetz after the DOJ probed him for potential sex trafficking. However, the scandal-scarred Gaetz still had his confirmation throttled by a handful of Senate Republicans who reportedly told Trump they would refuse to vote yes.
Pushback to Hegseth’s appointment hasn’t been as severe as Gaetz, but it appears those wagering on Polymarket feel there’s an increasing chance he’ll fail to be confirmed—even with a +3 Senate majority for Republicans. There have even been reports from Mar-a-Lago insiders that claim Trump has started putting together a replacement list.
A Trumpland source told The Washington Post there’s also fears in Trump’s camp that the thrice-married Hegseth hasn’t been properly vetted and that more unsavory details about him may eventually come to light.
Polymarket grew in popularity in the buildup to the 2024 election. It allows foreign citizens to place wagers on U.S. politics—something that’s illegal stateside—using cryptocurrency, with a scenario’s price rising or lowering based on the number of “yes” and “no” investments that users make.
The prediction market was famously more accurate than most political polls about the presidential election, which it had Trump winning comfortably over Kamala Harris.
While there’s been significantly less money placed on cabinet picks than the general election, the online market has still accepted $3.7 million in wagers on whether Hegseth will be confirmed or not.
The odds for other Trump appointees remained much higher than Hegseth on Friday morning. Most had chances in the high 90s, like Elise Stefanik and Lee Zeldin, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (72 percent) and Tulsi Gabbard (69 percent) still aren’t viewed as total locks to be confirmed.
