The eerily accurate election forecaster Nate Silver has Kamala Harris polling slightly ahead of Donald Trump as of this week, he announced on his Substack—buoyed by her rising numbers in Arizona, which she now leads as of Wednesday. It’s the fifth crucial swing state that Silver’s polling averages show Harris has vaulted ahead in following a chaotic few weeks in the 2024 race. “If you had the election today, then she would be favored,” Silver told NewsNation, adding: “But we should remember that polling is sometimes inaccurate, as it was in 2016 and 2020, as well.” (Though Silver correctly predicted the election outcomes of almost every single state in 2008 and 2012, he erred on 2016’s outcome, giving Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning.) Though he has demurred in interviews on whether he believes Harris can sustain her momentum through November, the odds appear to be turning in her favor for now. “Harris has improved on Biden’s numbers by somewhere between 3.9 points and 8.5 points in literally every swing state—and by more than 7 points nationally,” he wrote in a Wednesday Substack post. “It’s a completely transformed race.”