Nobody knows for certain how Tuesday night’s showdown between presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will shake out, but those who have a knack for predicting chaos may be able to cash in.
There’s a swath of betting categories available for the event, ranging from the simple—how many Americans will tune in—to the bizarre, like which specific insults Trump will hurl at Harris.
Gambling sites and sportsbooks based in the states aren’t allowed to accept wagers on U.S. politics, but offshore outfits say they’ve collected millions in bets. Their odds provide unique insight into how just off-the-rails some experts think the debate might go.
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Each prop has specific stipulations, like total U.S. viewership figures being determined by Nielsen.
Bet.usBet.us, an offshore sportsbook which accepts wagers from Americans, has given equal odds of -300 to the likelihood of Trump calling his opponents “Comrade Kamala” and “Tampon Tim” at least once each on stage.
Those odds mean you’d have to wager $300 to win $100—in other words, they suggest that bookmakers expect Trump to be up to his usual shenanigans as he squares off opposite Harris.
Trump is not favored to commit to accepting the 2024 election results if he loses to Harris (+500)—or to admit to losing to Joe Biden, in 2020.
Bet.us said there’s also a fair chance Trump will call Harris “Kamabla” (+150) or “Crazy Kamala” (even) at least once.
Oddsmakers don’t expect Harris to stand idly if—or, they predict, as—she’s insulted. She’s favored to say the words “convicted felon” (-150) during the debate; Bet.us is also accepting wagers on the possibility she’ll call Trump an “unstable man” (+450) and say “you are weird” (+250) on stage.
Those wanting to take a longshot can wager that the audience-free debate will somehow be interrupted by protesters (+700), that a candidate will curse (+800), and that Trump’s final word of the night will be communist or communism (+1800).
A popular debate prop offered by offshore books is the candidates’ attire on Tuesday night.
Bet.usThe offshore book BetOnline has also provided lines to bet on how many lies by each candidate will be fact-checked by The Washington Post. Harris’ over-under is set at 5.5 while Trump’s is listed at a whopping 19.5.
An over-under on U.S. viewers for the debate was placed at 75 million by Bet.us, which will use Nielsen figures. Trump is favored to have more total speaking time, despite ABC News promising there will be a strict cap on answer lengths. The two candidates are not favored to shake hands.
Bet.us has Harris is favored at -220 to win the debate outright in surveyed viewers’ eyes, with the result being determined by a CBS-affiliated poll.
That estimation is in line with other sportsbooks and the online wagering platform Polymarket, which lists Harris as having a 73 percent chance of winning the night.
Polymarket provides historical data on how odds have shifted for candidates.
PolymarketPolymarket, which counts the GOP megadonor Peter Thiel as an investor, shows that it had accepted more than $9 million on wagers related to Harris and Trump’s debate as of Tuesday morning.
Despite Harris being favored to win Tuesday’s debate, most betting markets have shifted in recent days to give Trump a slight edge to win the electoral college in November.
