For the second time in two years, the balance of power in Washington could come down to a runoff election in the state of Georgia.
On Wednesday, multiple news networks projected that neither Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) nor Republican candidate Herschel Walker would surpass the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff under the state’s election rules. With the vast majority of votes tallied, Warnock maintained a slim lead of less than one percentage point over Walker.
The remaining undecided Senate contests are Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia; Republicans need to take two of three to capture the Senate majority. Depending on the results elsewhere, the December 6 runoff election in Georgia could prove decisive in tipping control of the chamber to either Democrats or Republicans.
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For a few fall weeks, the state will serve as the battleground for a zero-sum national partisan war—just as it was in 2021, when Warnock and Sen. Jon Ossoff’s runoff wins tipped Senate control to Democrats.
Even if it doesn’t determine who controls the Senate, the 2022 Georgia runoff will still be a blockbuster simply because of who is involved and because of the deeper significance the contest has taken on for both parties.
Other than his close ally Donald Trump, who determinedly urged him into the Senate race, Walker might have been the most scandal-plagued political candidate in recent memory.
The college football legend saw revelations that he’d fathered secret children despite railing against absentee fathers, paid for women to have abortions despite his vocal anti-abortion stance, and lied about his business record, despite making it a key aspect of his resume. He spent the final months of the campaign openly criticized by his own son Christian, a right-wing influencer, who accused him of fomenting abuse and fear in their family.
Given that remarkable trail of scandal, Democrats hoped that Walker’s campaign might collapse. And in Warnock, Democrats believed they had one of their strongest candidates—a high-profile pastor and skilled campaigner with an ability to raise unparalleled amounts of money.
Yet, in their only debate of the general election, Walker got away with a boilerplate denial of the abortion story while Warnock’s own views as a “pro-choice pastor” received as much scrutiny. And it was not until very late in the campaign that Warnock began attacking Walker directly over personal allegations.
Though he attempted to distance himself from unpopular aspects of President Joe Biden’s tenure, the senator was a key vote for the party’s most important bills, and Republicans relentlessly attacked him over inflation and the economy. Still, Walker was favored by some to win an outright majority in Tuesday’s elections; instead, he performed some five points behind Gov. Brian Kemp, who easily won reelection.
The two candidates—and their deep-pocketed outside backers—will get an additional four weeks to launch their attacks and make their cases. Though roughly $250 million was spent so far by the candidates and their outside allies, the runoff campaign is set to take that number even higher.
While Warnock thrived under the immense pressure of the runoff campaign in 2020, there’s another reason this runoff will be different. After the Democrats’ wins, Georgia Republicans passed legislation to shorten the length of the runoff campaign by half, which voting rights advocates worry will give voters less time to return ballots and participate in the process.
