Every major pre-election forecast predicted a 50/50 election.
The polls that powered those forecasts have, so far, proven to be broadly accurate, although estimates in all seven swing states appear to have materially underestimated Trump—albeit within the margin of error.
Jen O‘Malley Dillon, Kamala Harris’ campaign manager, has described the race as “razor thin,” saying: “While we continue to see data trickle in from the Sun Belt states, we have known all along that our clearest path to 270 electoral votes lies through the Blue Wall”—and advising Democrats to ”get some sleep”.
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Yet Trump has moved into a commanding lead in the New York Times’ election forecast, with his win probability increasing inexorably between 8 and 11pm. A 50/50 race has shifted to a race that is now 90/10 in Trump’s favor, according to their predictive “needle”.
Trump is now expected to win 299 electoral college votes in their forecast, up from 288 earlier.
He is increasingly favored to win re-election by the Times by prevailing in the so-called “Blue Wall” trio of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—a wall that crumbled for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and was re-built by Biden in 2020.
The Times now rates Wisconsin, where two-thirds of the vote has been counted, as a 66/34 race in Trump’s favor, while considering Trump to be a 70 per cent favorite in Pennsylvania, where nearly 80 per cent of the vote has been counted. He is also favoured by 2 to 1 in Michigan, where only 38 per cent has been tallied.
These three races are likely to determine the election given Trump’s lead in Georgia, where more than 95 per cent of the vote is in, and North Carolina, which the Times has called for Trump. No votes are in from Nevada, the seventh swing state.
Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief election analyst, earlier cautioned against treating a 75/25 race, as it was then, as a foregone conclusion.
Harris would, given her lack of a path through Georgia and North Carolina, “need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win—a real possibility, but a tall order,” Cohn said then, emphasizing that “we have very little data from those states, and it will be a long time until we do.”
Cohn was emphasizing an essential point: a model can only be so accurate when it is processing so much data, much of which is yet to be counted.
We now have more of that data, and Cohn has since estimated that Trump’s re-election is likely.
Democrats remain confident that they will be able to turn out enough votes to win in Pennsylvania, but Trump may yet sweep the Blue Wall, winning over 300 electoral college votes and re-turning to the White House.
Nate Silver, the prominent forecaster, had published a contrasting forecast that showed Harris as a 53 per cent favorite, but he has since discontinued updates to it after 10pm.
Trump may even win the popular vote, contrary to all expectations. The Times now thinks he may prevail nationwide by 1 point.
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