Presidential pardons became a relative rarity during the administrations of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but the latter’s return to power has markets accepting wagers on who the president-elect may show clemency to this time around.
Trump, 78, dropped a number of hints during his campaign that he’d show clemency to figures like Hunter Biden and Ross Ulbricht, while a political insider thinks Trump may even pardon disgraced reality TV stars Todd and Julie Chrisley.
Here is a look at some of the people who might be pardoned—or have their sentences commuted—once Trump is sworn back into the White House on Jan. 20.
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Jan. 6 rioters
Trump said during his campaign he would “free” Jan. 6 rioters serving time in federal prison and pardon those who are yet to be sentenced.
“If they’re innocent, I would pardon them,” he told a panel in July, adding that “they were convicted by a very tough system.”
Perhaps that comment is what has prediction websites like Polymarket listing a “Jan. 6 protester” as having the highest chance of being pardoned by Trump in his first 100 days in office. For that prediction to pay out, only a single rioter would have to be pardoned.
In total, more than 1,400 Trump supporters have been charged in connection with the chaos at the U.S. Capitol in 2021. Some defendants have already tried to wiggle their way out of convictions by referring to Trump’s pardon promise, asking federal judges to throw out their cases since their convictions will supposedly be deemed moot by Trump.
Ross Ulbricht
The person with the next highest chance of a Trump pardon, according to Polymarket, is 40-year-old Ross Ulbricht, an American who was sentenced in 2015 to life in prison for operating the drug marketplace Silk Road on the dark web.
Ulbricht has a massive following that has worked feverishly to raise awareness to his sentence and call for his release. Among those is the X account “Free_Ross,” which celebrated Trump’s election win by posting, “ROSS IS COMING HOME IN JANUARY!!”
That enthusiasm isn’t without reason. Trump told the Libertarian National Convention in May that he’d commute Ulbricht’s sentence on “day one” of his presidency. He also posted to Truth Social in October that he “WILL SAVE ROSS ULBRICHT!”
Ulbricht was convicted of “continuing criminal enterprise,” a charge that has also been handed to drug kingpins like Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. Prosecutors said Silk Road generated $213.9 million in sales, which included the selling of narcotics like heroin and cocaine, and made $13.2 million in commissions.
Trump’s sympathy toward Ulbricht is sharply different from his stance on other drug traffickers. The president-elect has promised to cripple the drug trade by suggesting that traffickers, smugglers, and dealers be eligible for the death penalty. Perhaps that is why Trump passed on pardoning Ulbricht in his first term, despite sources telling the Daily Beast he was considering it.
Hunter Biden
As bizarre as it may sound given Trump’s on-the-record calls for Joe Biden’s son to be tossed in federal prison, the president-elect has recently suggested he’s had a change of heart and may even wipe away 54-year-old Hunter Biden’s gun charges.
Trump told the conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt last month “there’s no question about it” that he’d consider pardoning the first son, who Trump noted has been a “bad boy.”
“I happen to think it’s very bad for our country,” he said of Hunter Biden’s prosecution.
Biden was convicted in June on a trio of felony charges related to his purchase of a revolver in 2018. Prosecutors successfully argued that he lied on a mandatory gun-purchase form when he indicated he wasn’t illegally using or addicted to drugs.
The White House has said—with the latest insistence coming Thursday—that the president will not pardon his son. It’s possible the elder Biden’s sentiment may change next month, however, should his son be given a harsh prison sentence at his sentencing hearing.
Eric Adams
Embattled New York City Mayor Eric Adams just might be a surprise pardon by Trump. Despite being in rival parties, the men share a hometown, and Trump has publicly showed sympathy to the mayor amid his Turkish influence scandal.
“I know what it’s like to be persecuted by the DOJ for speaking out against open borders,” Trump said at a charity dinner in New York City last month, referring to Adams’ vocal displeasure with the migrant crisis in New York.
At the same event, Trump said: “We were persecuted, Eric. I was persecuted, and so are you, Eric.”
Adams, 64, was indicted on federal bribery and fraud charges in September that were related to his allegedly cozy relationship with Turkish officials. He has yet to be convicted, but Trump could have the case dismissed outright if he wishes to.
The mayor, for his part, remained mum on Trump in the buildup to Election Day but was quick to congratulate him on Wednesday morning, saying he wishes Trump and JD Vance “all the best as they work to promote the interests of the American people.”
Julian Assange
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, 53, may be among those to have their criminal charges wiped away during a Trump presidency—though a pardon in his case would be more symbolic than anything.
Assange pleaded guilty in June to releasing a trove of U.S. military secrets in 2010 that included hundreds of thousands of pages related to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. That deal meant Assange would be released from a British prison—where he’d been incarcerated for the last five years—and could return to his native Australia.
Still, Assange’s wife, Stella, told Reuters that she would still push to have her husband’s name cleared entirely. Prior to Assange’s plea deal being struck, Trump told the podcaster Tim Pool in May that he’d “give very serious consideration” to granting clemency to Assange.
Todd and Julie Chrisley
Among those celebrating Trump’s election win the most last week were the reality TV stars Julie and Todd Chrisley, an insider told the Daily Mail.
The British tabloid quoted the insider as saying, “Todd is jumping for joy in prison and is so optimistic that he will be able to walk out of there when Trump takes office.”
Trump hasn’t publicly hinted at a pardon for the couple, who are serving time on federal tax evasion and bank fraud charges. However, the couple’s 27-year-old daughter, Savannah, has been a fervent supporter of the president-elect and even spoke at the RNC this summer.
The Washington Post columnist Philip Bump wrote after Savannah’s speech that, should Trump win, the Chrisleys “would almost certainly” be “quickly” pardoned. That’d be a relief to the 55-year-old Todd and 51-year-old Julie, who were sentenced to a combined 19 years in the clink for defrauding Atlanta banks out of more than $36 million in BS loans.
The long shots
Other pardons Trump may consider includes Joe Exotic, the infamous Tiger King protagonist who was rumored to be on Trump’s clemency list at the end of his first term. That pardon never came, however, and the so-called Tiger King—whose real name is Joseph Maldonado—has remained locked up on a 21-year prison sentence for a murder-for-hire plot and violations of the Endangered Species Act.
Trump hasn’t given any inkling he’d pardon Sean “Diddy” Combs, but Polymarket lists the disgraced musician and accused sex trafficker as a long-shot pardon possibility that it’s accepted wagers on. The same goes for the disgraced crypto kingpin Sam Bankman-Fried, who has been given the same highly unlikely chance at clemency as Combs at 5 percent.
The ex-Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez may also be holding out hope for clemency via Trump. After all, the former lawmaker’s pal Dr. Salomon Melgen—who faced corruption charges alongside Menendez in 2017—was among those who had their sentence commuted by Trump at the end of his first term. Menendez, 70, was found guilty of accepting bribes and acting as an agent for the Egyptian government this summer. He faces decades in prison and will learn his fate at a sentencing hearing in January.
The rapper Young Thug has also been mentioned as being primed for a pardon, but his recent guilty plea was to state charges in Georgia. Only federal charges are eligible to be pardoned or commuted by a sitting U.S. president, making the 33-year-old ineligible for clemency via Trump.
